APA Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| APA Stock | USD 40.80 1.77 4.53% |
APA Corporation's Simple Exponential Smoothing reference page covers the model's projected value and error measures from recent price data. The forecast output and associated deviation metrics are shown for informational use.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of APA Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 40.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.66 and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.85.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting APA Corporation forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent APA observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for APA Corporation are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of APA Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 40.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.66 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.66 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.85 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict APA Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that APA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest APA | APA Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Forecasting APA Corporation for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. At the moment, the model places downside around 38.10 and upside around 43.50 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of APA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent APA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.8567 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2778 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6642 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.023 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 39.85 |
Other Forecasting Options for APA
Bollinger Bands applied to APA Stock price data measure how far APA has deviated from its recent average relative to its own volatility. This distinction drives the choice of forecasting model applied to APA's price data.APA Related Equities
These firms work in a similar space as APA within the Energy space and serve as useful points for comparison. Key comparison metrics include price-to-earnings, profit margin, and revenue growth across APA's peer group. Sector-wide trends across this peer group can help split company-level factors from broader forces.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
APA Market Strength Events
For investors tracking APA Corporation, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of stock behavior. These indicators add context to timing decisions around APA Corporation positions.
| Accumulation Distribution | 427133.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 1.092593 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.05 | |||
| Day Median Price | 40.64 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 40.69 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 1.04 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 1.77 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 79.03 |
APA Risk Indicators
Analyzing APA's basic risk indicators provides investors with a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for apa stock. By identifying the level of risk embedded in APA's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing.
| Mean Deviation | 2.25 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.61 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.7 | |||
| Variance | 7.3 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.48 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.6 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.79 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for APA
The amount of media and story coverage tied to APA Corporation can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
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APA Short Properties
Short-interest signals around APA Corporation can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 359 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 516 M |