American Outdoor Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| AOUT Stock | USD 8.23 0.03 0.37% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing reference information for American Outdoor summarizes the forecasted value and model error statistics based on historical price data. This data is provided for reference and analytical review.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of American Outdoor Brands on the next trading day is expected to be 8.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.40.When American Outdoor Brands prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any American Outdoor Brands trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent American Outdoor observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. American Outdoor's Double Exponential Smoothing reference values are drawn from available trading data and are presented for informational reference only. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of American Outdoor Brands on the next trading day is expected to be 8.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.07 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.40 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Outdoor's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest American Outdoor | American Outdoor Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for American Outdoor Brands uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The current forecast range spans downside near 5.41 and upside near 11.16.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Outdoor stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Outdoor stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0633 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2101 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.024 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12.395 |
Other Forecasting Options for American Outdoor
Investors evaluating American at any level need to understand the significance of American Outdoor's price movement for their investment outcomes. The presence of noise in American Stock price charts demands careful analysis to avoid misinterpreting short-term fluctuations as trends.American Outdoor Related Equities
The following equities are related to American Outdoor within the Consumer Discretionary space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing American Outdoor against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
American Outdoor Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators applied to American Outdoor help investors evaluate how the stock tracks overall market momentum and conditions. These signals are used to determine optimal timing for entering or exiting American Outdoor Brands positions.
American Outdoor Risk Indicators
The assessment of American Outdoor's risk indicators plays a key role in forecasting its future price and managing investment exposure. Investors who measure American Outdoor's risk profile carefully are better equipped to decide how to manage their positions.
| Mean Deviation | 2.28 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.94 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.85 | |||
| Variance | 8.13 | |||
| Downside Variance | 9.9 | |||
| Semi Variance | 8.66 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.49 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for American Outdoor
Story coverage around American Outdoor Brands often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
American Outdoor Short Properties
Short-interest signals around American Outdoor Brands can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 12.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 23.4 M |
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