Amazon Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| AMZN Stock | USD 238.42 0.74 0.31% |
Amazon Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Amazon's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Amazon's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Amazon fundamentals over time.
As of today, The value of RSI of Amazon's share price is at 53. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Amazon, making its price go up or down. Momentum 53
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.364 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.86 | EPS Estimate Current Year 7.0676 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.8769 | Wall Street Target Price 295.6145 |
Using Amazon hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Amazon Inc from the perspective of Amazon response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Amazon using Amazon's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Amazon using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Amazon's stock price.
Amazon Short Interest
An investor who is long Amazon may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Amazon and may potentially protect profits, hedge Amazon with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 220.2988 | Short Percent 0.0076 | Short Ratio 2.05 | Shares Short Prior Month 76.1 M | 50 Day MA 232.3628 |
Amazon Relative Strength Index
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Amazon Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 238.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.69 and the sum of the absolute errors of 217.93.Amazon Inc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Amazon's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Amazon. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Amazon can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Amazon Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Amazon's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Amazon.
Amazon Implied Volatility | 0.39 |
Amazon's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Amazon Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Amazon's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Amazon stock will not fluctuate a lot when Amazon's options are near their expiration.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Amazon Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 238.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.69 and the sum of the absolute errors of 217.93. Amazon after-hype prediction price | USD 238.2 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amazon to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Amazon contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Amazon Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0244% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Amazon trading at USD 238.42, that is roughly USD 0.0581 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Amazon's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Amazon Inc options at the current volatility level of 0.39%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Amazon Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Amazon's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Amazon's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Amazon stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Amazon's open interest, investors have to compare it to Amazon's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Amazon is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Amazon. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Amazon Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Amazon price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Amazon using various technical indicators. When you analyze Amazon charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Amazon Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Amazon Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 238.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.69, mean absolute percentage error of 31.25, and the sum of the absolute errors of 217.93.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Amazon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Amazon's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Amazon Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Amazon | Amazon Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Amazon Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Amazon's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Amazon's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 236.62 and 240.81, respectively. We have considered Amazon's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Amazon stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Amazon stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.7432 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.6937 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0157 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 217.9268 |
Predictive Modules for Amazon
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Amazon Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Amazon After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Amazon at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Amazon or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Amazon, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Amazon Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Amazon's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Amazon's historical news coverage. Amazon's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 236.10 and 240.30, respectively. We have considered Amazon's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Amazon is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Amazon Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Amazon Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Amazon is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Amazon backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Amazon, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 2.10 | 0.22 | 0.09 | 5 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
238.42 | 238.20 | 0.09 |
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Amazon Hype Timeline
Amazon Inc is presently traded for 238.42. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.22, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.09. Amazon is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 238.2. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 76.09%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.09%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.08%. The volatility of related hype on Amazon is about 196.08%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 238.51. About 67.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.64. Amazon Inc recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7.08. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 20:1 split on the 6th of June 2022. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amazon to cross-verify your projections.Amazon Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Amazon's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Amazon's future price movements. Getting to know how Amazon's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Amazon may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BABA | Alibaba Group Holding | 0.56 | 7 per month | 1.99 | (0) | 5.10 | (3.43) | 13.40 | |
| RERE | ATRenew Inc DRC | (0.33) | 6 per month | 2.09 | 0.17 | 6.33 | (3.03) | 13.51 | |
| CASY | Caseys General Stores | 1.14 | 9 per month | 1.38 | 0.07 | 2.23 | (2.06) | 9.89 | |
| LQDT | Liquidity Services | (0.21) | 4 per month | 1.57 | 0.14 | 3.68 | (2.98) | 16.86 | |
| ETSY | Etsy Inc | 1.62 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 3.69 | (5.03) | 15.04 | |
| RH | RH | 6.88 | 10 per month | 2.90 | 0.07 | 6.59 | (4.89) | 15.48 | |
| LITB | LightInTheBox Holding Co | 0.03 | 6 per month | 5.80 | 0.01 | 13.41 | (9.79) | 30.20 | |
| RVLV | Revolve Group LLC | 0.71 | 11 per month | 2.18 | 0.13 | 6.43 | (3.71) | 16.41 | |
| GME | GameStop Corp | 0.39 | 6 per month | 1.66 | 0.01 | 4.16 | (3.00) | 9.35 | |
| TLF | Tandy Leather Factory | (0.08) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.68 | (2.63) | 9.10 |
Other Forecasting Options for Amazon
For every potential investor in Amazon, whether a beginner or expert, Amazon's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Amazon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Amazon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Amazon's price trends.Amazon Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Amazon stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Amazon could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Amazon by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Amazon Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Amazon stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Amazon shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Amazon stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Amazon Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 238.42 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 238.42 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.37) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.74) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 53.16 |
Amazon Risk Indicators
The analysis of Amazon's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Amazon's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting amazon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.78 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.05 | |||
| Variance | 4.21 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.98 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.18 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.31) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Amazon
The number of cover stories for Amazon depends on current market conditions and Amazon's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Amazon is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Amazon's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Amazon Short Properties
Amazon's future price predictability will typically decrease when Amazon's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Amazon Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Amazon's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Amazon's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 10.7 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 101.2 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amazon to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the AI Portfolio Prophet module to use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities.
Is Broadline Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Amazon. If investors know Amazon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Amazon listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.364 | Earnings Share 7.08 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.134 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Amazon Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Amazon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Amazon's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Amazon's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Amazon's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Amazon's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Amazon's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Amazon is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Amazon's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.