Amazon Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| AMZN Stock | USD 205.36 -0.01 -0.0049% |
This reference page presents Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Amazon Inc. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Amazon Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 205.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 187.02.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Amazon Inc forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Amazon observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Amazon Inc is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Amazon Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 205.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.12 , mean absolute percentage error of 16.67 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 187.02 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Amazon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Amazon's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
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Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Amazon's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The current forecast range spans downside near 203.55 and upside near 207.17.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Amazon stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Amazon stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.0863 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.4503 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.117 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.014 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 187.02 |
Other Forecasting Options for Amazon
Amazon's daily price returns can be decomposed into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in Amazon often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration.Amazon Related Equities
These stocks within the Consumer Discretionary space are often compared to Amazon by analysts and fund managers in the sector. Looking at Amazon's pricing multiples next to these peers shows if the stock trades at a premium or discount. Peer pricing works best when the firms compared share similar business models and end markets. The peer review below gives a clear framework for judging Amazon's standing among rivals.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Amazon Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors evaluate how Amazon stock reacts to evolving market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading Amazon Inc.
Amazon Risk Indicators
The analysis of Amazon's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding Amazon's allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.36 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.79 | |||
| Variance | 3.19 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Amazon
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Amazon Inc can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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Amazon Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Amazon Inc matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 10.8 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 123 B |