Amrize Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

AMRZ Stock   56.42  0.07  0.12%   
The reference data on this page reflects Triple Exponential Smoothing output applied to Amrize's historical daily closing prices. Forecast values and accuracy statistics are presented for informational purposes.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Amrize on the next trading day is expected to be 56.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 65.27.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Amrize observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Amrize observations. The forecast reference data presented here for Amrize reflects Triple Exponential Smoothing model output and is intended as reference material for analytical use.
Triple exponential smoothing for Amrize - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Amrize prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Amrize price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Amrize.

Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Amrize on the next trading day is expected to be 56.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.11 , mean absolute percentage error of 2.23 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 65.27 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Amrize Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Amrize's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

Forecasting Amrize for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. The current forecast range spans downside near 53.66 and upside near 58.66.
Market Value
56.42
56.16
Expected Value
58.66
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Amrize stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Amrize stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.2964
MADMean absolute deviation1.1063
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0189
SAESum of the absolute errors65.27
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Amrize observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Amrize observations.

Other Forecasting Options for Amrize

Understanding Amrize's price movement is a prerequisite for any investor considering Amrize as a position. Amrize Stock price charts are frequently cluttered with noise that can interfere with accurate interpretation.

Amrize Related Equities

The following equities are related to Amrize within the Materials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Amrize against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Amrize Market Strength Events

For traders and investors in Amrize, market strength indicators offer a quantitative framework for evaluating the stock's responsiveness to market conditions. These tools help identify when trading Amrize shares is most likely to generate favorable returns.

Amrize Risk Indicators

Analyzing Amrize's risk indicators provides a critical input for price forecasting and investment risk management. By quantifying the risk in Amrize's investment, investors can make more informed decisions about their exposure and hedging strategies.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Amrize

A coverage review of Amrize helps investors see when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. A disciplined read of coverage helps investors separate durable relevance from temporary noise.

Amrize Short Properties

Short-interest signals around Amrize can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding553.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments1.9 B

More Resources for Amrize Stock Analysis

Understanding Amrize typically begins with financial statements and long-term trend review. Ratios and trend metrics help frame Amrize's operating context across reporting periods. Key reports that frame Amrize Stock are listed below: