American Integrity Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| AII Stock | 18.95 -0.07 -0.37% |
The Simple Moving Average forecast shown here for American Integrity is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information. This data is provided for reference and analytical review. The Simple Moving Average output serves as one input among many for analytical review.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of American Integrity Insurance on the next trading day is projected to be 18.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.20.The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of American Integrity Insurance price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of American Integrity. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future This Simple Moving Average reference page for American Integrity presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 28th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of American Integrity Insurance on the next trading day is expected to be 18.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.24 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.20 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Integrity's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for American Integrity Insurance uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 16.63 on the downside to about 21.34 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Integrity stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Integrity stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.9933 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0178 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3424 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0186 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 20.2 |
Other Forecasting Options for American Integrity
The distribution of American Integrity's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in American Integrity's chart that simple price charts miss. The slope of American Integrity's linear regression channel quantifies trend direction and strength over a chosen lookback period. Divergences between OBV and price can foreshadow trend changes in American.American Integrity Related Equities
Investors studying American Integrity often look at related stocks within the Financials space to gauge pricing and results. Checking cash flow across this peer set helps gauge American Integrity's relative financial strength.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
American Integrity Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for American Integrity give insight into the stock's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in American Integrity Insurance. Market strength analysis for American Integrity Insurance works best when combined with volume and volatility data. For American Integrity, strength indicators are a practical complement to price and fundamental analysis.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 18.95 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 18.95 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.04 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.07 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 51.54 |
American Integrity Risk Indicators
A thorough review of American Integrity's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in American Integrity's allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging. The assessment of American Integrity's risk indicators plays a key role in managing investment exposure. Identifying the magnitude of risk in American Integrity's provides context to choose between accepting or hedging exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.62 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.3 | |||
| Variance | 5.3 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for American Integrity
Coverage intensity for American Integrity Insurance matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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American Integrity Short Properties
Reviewing short-oriented indicators for American Integrity Insurance is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 17.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 203.9 M |