Koninklijke Ahold Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing

AD Stock  EUR 40.06  -0.79  -1.93%   
This reference page presents Double Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize on the next trading day is expected to be 40.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.10.When Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Koninklijke Ahold observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Double Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Koninklijke Ahold works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize on the next trading day is expected to be 40.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.46 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.10 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Koninklijke Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Koninklijke Ahold's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

This next-day forecast for Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Market Value
40.06
40.05
Expected Value
41.86
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Koninklijke Ahold stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Koninklijke Ahold stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0548
MADMean absolute deviation0.4255
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0112
SAESum of the absolute errors25.1039
When Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Koninklijke Ahold observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Other Forecasting Options for Koninklijke Ahold

Koninklijke Ahold's daily price returns can be decomposed into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in Koninklijke often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration.

Koninklijke Ahold Related Equities

Checking Koninklijke Ahold against related firms within the Consumer Staples space helps investors see where the stock stands among peers. Revenue and margin checks across this group help investors set expectations for Koninklijke Ahold's results. Investors should look for peers that steadily beat or lag Koninklijke Ahold across many periods.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Koninklijke Ahold Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors evaluate how Koninklijke Ahold stock reacts to evolving market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize.

Koninklijke Ahold Risk Indicators

The analysis of Koninklijke Ahold's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding Koninklijke Ahold's allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Koninklijke Ahold

Coverage intensity for Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.

Koninklijke Ahold Short Properties

A short-interest review of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize provides context for understanding whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding905 M
Cash And Short Term Investments3.9 B

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