Accel Entertainment Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| ACEL Stock | USD 11.15 -0.14 -1.24% |
Momentum
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.093 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.232 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.8471 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.926 | Wall Street Target Price 15.5 |
This view frames how Accel Entertainment responds to recent headlines and peer activity within its market context. The sentiment layer reflects Accel Entertainment's options activity and short interest context.
Short Interest Panel - Accel Entertainment
Short interest in Accel Entertainment is a useful contrarian indicator. Extreme levels of short interest can precede sharp short-covering rallies if positive news surprises the market.
200 Day MA 11.2047 | Short Percent 0.0281 | Short Ratio 3.68 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.4 M | 50 Day MA 11.342 |
RSI Oscillator - Accel
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Accel Entertainment on the next trading day is expected to be 11.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.28.Hype and Price Context: Accel Entertainment
Accel Entertainment's news sentiment aggregates headline tone and social media engagement to build a real-time gauge of investor psychology around Accel. Sentiment extremes often precede price reversals.
The correlation between Accel Entertainment's news sentiment and price provides a measurable basis for market timing. A strong positive correlation suggests sentiment is currently driving price; a negative one may indicate a potential reversal.
Accel Entertainment Implied Volatility | 2.15 |
Unlike historical volatility, which measures past price movements, Accel Entertainment's implied volatility is a real-time gauge of how much uncertainty the options market is pricing into Accel Entertainment's future price action.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Accel Entertainment on the next trading day is expected to be 11.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.28.Accel Entertainment after-hype prediction price | $ 11.23 |
The sentiment view is a companion to forecasting, technical studies, analyst estimates, and earnings trends.
Historical Fundamental Analysis of Accel Entertainment provides a cross-check on projections for Accel Entertainment. The analysis adds historical context for the projection set.Rule 16 for the current Accel contract
Rule 16 applies implied volatility to estimate a daily move of roughly 13.44% across the 2026-04-17 option cycle. This context is informational: with Accel Entertainment near $ 11.15, the daily move estimate is $ 1.5 .
Open Interest for Accel 2026-04-17 Options
Open interest data captures outstanding Accel Entertainment option contracts and helps map participation over time.
Accel Entertainment Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Accel price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Accel using various technical indicators. When you analyze Accel charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 17th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Accel Entertainment on the next trading day is expected to be 11.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.11 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.28 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Accel Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Accel Entertainment's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Accel Entertainment | Accel Entertainment Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Accel Entertainment focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 8.30 on the downside to about 14.08 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Accel Entertainment stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Accel Entertainment stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0502 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1913 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0165 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.2845 |
Mean reversion in Accel Entertainment's price occurs when temporary dislocations - caused by sentiment extremes, news events, or liquidity shocks - correct back toward the stock's historical fair value.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
Understanding Accel Entertainment's probability distribution helps investors calibrate position size to their risk tolerance. The tails of the Accel Entertainment distribution capture low-probability but high-impact outcomes that naive point estimates ignore.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
Using Accel Entertainment's historical news impact data, we estimate the likely price corridor for the next trading session after a significant headline. Accel Entertainment's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8.35 and 14.11, respectively. Note that past news reactions for Accel Entertainment are not guaranteed to repeat, particularly in novel market environments.
Current Value
Macroaxis estimates the after-hype price of Accel Entertainment across a 3 months horizon to evaluate where the instrument could settle once headline distortion subsides. The objective is to separate event-driven enthusiasm from a more stable price path once the market absorbs the catalyst.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Accel Entertainment is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Accel Entertainment backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Accel Entertainment, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 2.89 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 9 Events | 8 Events | In 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
11.15 | 11.23 | 0.53 |
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Hype Timeline
Accel Entertainment is presently traded for 11.15. The company has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Accel is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 11.23. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.53%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.05%. The volatility of related hype on Accel Entertainment is about 4982.76%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.15. About 17.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of Accel Entertainment was presently reported as 3.28. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.48. Accel Entertainment had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in 9 days. Historical Fundamental Analysis of Accel Entertainment provides a cross-check on projections for Accel Entertainment. The analysis adds historical context for the projection set.Related Hype Analysis
Understanding how Accel Entertainment's direct competitors react to news events helps investors anticipate contagion effects and sector-wide sentiment shifts that may affect Accel Entertainment's performance.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BALY | Ballys Corp | -0.05 | 8 per month | 0.00 | -0.07 | 5.51 | -6.17 | 16.79 | |
| ODP | ODP Corp | 0.16 | 19 per month | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.65 | -0.39 | 33.52 | |
| GDEN | Golden Entertainment | 0.02 | 5 per month | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1.50 | -1.42 | 4.88 | |
| SMP | Standard Motor Products | -3.58 | 10 per month | 2.01 | 0.03 | 3.06 | -2.23 | 14.42 | |
| BJRI | BJs Restaurants | -0.67 | 11 per month | 0.00 | -0.06 | 3.73 | -3.63 | 9.53 | |
| LUXE | LuxExperience BV | 0.36 | 6 per month | 0.00 | -0.05 | 4.27 | -4.24 | 25.68 | |
| AEVA | Aeva Technologies Common | -0.16 | 9 per month | 5.53 | 0.04 | 10.88 | -9.18 | 48.05 | |
| HOV | Hovnanian Enterprises | -0.89 | 8 per month | 2.18 | 0.08 | 5.45 | -3.78 | 18.82 | |
| CWH | Camping World Holdings | 0.05 | 9 per month | 0.00 | -0.14 | 5.39 | -7.76 | 29.28 | |
| AMWD | American Woodmark | 5.34 | 8 per month | 0.00 | -0.13 | 4.15 | -4.42 | 18.49 |
Other Forecasting Options for Accel Entertainment
The price movement of Accel is a central concern for all potential investors, regardless of their level of expertise. Accel Stock price charts can be difficult to interpret due to the noise present in the data.Accel Entertainment Related Equities
The following equities are related to Accel Entertainment within the Consumer Discretionary space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Accel Entertainment against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Accel Entertainment Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators applied to Accel Entertainment stock help investors assess the relative momentum and resilience of the security in different market environments. By using these indicators, traders can make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell Accel Entertainment.
Accel Entertainment Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for Accel Entertainment is essential for accurately projecting its future price trajectory. By identifying the level of risk embedded in Accel Entertainment's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing and risk mitigation.
| Mean Deviation | 1.59 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.88 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.85 | |||
| Variance | 8.14 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.04 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.53 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.91 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Accel Entertainment
Story coverage around Accel Entertainment often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Accel Entertainment Short Properties
A short-interest review of Accel Entertainment helps investors understand whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 86.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 296.6 M |
More Resources for Accel Stock Analysis
Understanding Accel Entertainment typically begins with financial statements and long-term trend review. Financial ratios provide a structured lens for assessing Accel Entertainment's profitability and growth trends. Below are reports that help frame Accel Entertainment Stock in context:Historical Fundamental Analysis of Accel Entertainment provides a cross-check on projections for Accel Entertainment. The analysis adds historical context for the projection set. To learn how to invest in Accel Stock, please use our How to Invest in Accel Entertainment guide.Accel Entertainment P/E of 52.74 alongside ROE at 19.24% frames the starting point - the resources below add portfolio-level context that single-security analysis cannot provide alone. Those return and profitability levels shape the investment picture - the supplemental tools help investors decide if they are sustainable. You can also try the Investing Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.093 | Earnings Share 0.6 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.075 | Return On Assets |
Investors evaluate Accel Entertainment using market value and book value, each describing different facets of the business. Accel Entertainment's market capitalization is 939.42 M. The 3.41 P/B ratio shows Accel Entertainment carries a substantial premium over its balance-sheet equity. Enterprise value stands at 1.23 B. The intrinsic value concept focuses on underlying worth, which can diverge from market price and book value. Valuation work aligns these measures into a single context.
Note that Accel Entertainment's intrinsic value and market price are different measures derived from different inputs. For Accel Entertainment, key inputs include a P/E ratio of 52.74, a P/B ratio of 3.41, a profit margin of 3.87%, and ROE of 19.24%. The actual Accel Entertainment transaction price is determined by real-time order flow on the exchange.