Accel Entertainment Stock Performance

ACEL Stock  USD 11.05  -0.10  -0.90%   
The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 1.47, which alludes to a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. Market upswings tend to lift Accel Entertainment more than average, but downturns carry a proportionally larger impact on returns. At this point, Accel Entertainment has a negative expected return of -0.0053%. Please make sure to double-check Accel Entertainment's value at risk, kurtosis, and the relationship between the total risk alpha and rate of daily change, to decide if Accel Entertainment's performance from the past will be repeated at some future date.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Weak
 
Weak
 
Strong
Over the last 90 days, Accel Entertainment generated negative risk-adjusted returns and added little value for investors with long positions. Used correctly, this score helps investors distinguish between raw price movement and actual return efficiency. Despite quite persistent technical and fundamental indicators, Accel Entertainment is not utilizing all of its potential. The latest price mess may contribute to short-term losses for institutional investors. Learn More
Begin Period Cash Flow281.3 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-100.6 M

Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you had invested $ 1,108 in Accel Entertainment on December 18, 2025 and sold it today you would have lost $ 30.00 from holding Accel Entertainment or given up 2.71% of portfolio value over 90 days. Accel Entertainment does not currently generate positive expected returns and carries 2.9296% risk (volatility on return distribution) over a 90-day horizon. In different words, 26% of stocks are less volatile than Accel, and 99% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
This comparison focuses on expected return, realized volatility, and risk efficiency versus the market. It is most useful when expected return is read together with volatility rather than in isolation. Given the investment horizon of 90 days Accel Entertainment is expected to generate 3.66 times more return on investment than the market. However, the company is 3.66 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about 0.0 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly -0.04 per unit of risk.

Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

Investors have long observed that Accel Stock price tends to fluctuate around a central value over time. This mean reversion pattern is a cornerstone of many forecasting models. However, periods of persistent mispricing in some stocks suggest that additional risk factors may account for the delayed correction.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds moving above the current price in 90 days
11.05 90 days 11.05
about 79.49
A normal distribution analysis suggests that the odds of Accel Entertainment moving above the current price in 90 days from now are about 79.49 (The distribution above shows where Accel Stock price is most likely to fall within the next 90 days based on historical volatility).
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.47 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Accel Entertainment will likely underperform. Additionally, Accel Entertainment has an alpha of 0.1108, implying that it can generate a 0.1108 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherent market risk (beta).
   Accel Entertainment Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Accel Entertainment

Forecasting Accel Entertainment involves applying various models to estimate future price behavior. While no method can consistently predict the stock market with certainty, the discipline of building and testing forecasts sharpens investment thinking. Combining several approaches and cross-checking results offers a more balanced view of potential outcomes.
Mean reversion in Accel Entertainment's price occurs when temporary dislocations - caused by sentiment extremes, news events, or liquidity shocks - correct back toward the stock's historical fair value.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
8.1211.0513.98
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
8.5611.4914.42
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
7.7510.6813.61
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
10.3411.2912.24
Details
A rigorous investment case for Accel Entertainment requires more than studying its own financials. Benchmarking Accel Entertainment's performance, valuation, and risk profile against competitors is essential to validate any investment thesis.

Primary Risk Indicators

The stock market has gone through extended periods of turbulence over the past two decades. Accel Entertainment has not been immune to these swings. Sudden corrections and sharp rallies have tested many portfolios. Investors can protect against downside risk in Accel Entertainment by monitoring Accel Entertainment's fundamental risk indicators and maintaining appropriate hedges.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.11
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.47
σ
Overall volatility
0.34
Ir
Information ratio 0.02

Investor Alerts and Insights

Setting up alerts on Accel Entertainment ensures that material changes in technical or fundamental conditions are not missed. These notifications for Accel Entertainment help investors make timely decisions in response to significant stock events.
Accel Entertainment generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Over 76.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies

Price Density Drivers

The interaction between bullish and bearish market participants is a primary driver of near-term price dynamics. The future price of Accel Stock reflects these dynamics, along with broader investor sentiment. Accel Entertainment's short-sentiment indicators are presented below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding86.4 M
Cash And Short Term Investments296.6 M

Accel Entertainment Fundamentals Growth

Accel Entertainment's fundamentals serve as the primary lens through which investors evaluate Accel Stock. Metrics such as earnings growth, revenue consistency, margin trends, and balance sheet strength collectively determine market sentiment toward Accel Stock.

Performance Metrics & Calculation Methodology

Accel Entertainment performance is measured on a risk-adjusted basis against benchmarks. Drawdown profile frames downside sensitivity and recovery characteristics. Accel Entertainment shows ROE of 19.24%, ROA of 6.61%.

This section for Accel Entertainment is built from periodic company reporting and market reference feeds, with harmonization applied to align reporting definitions. Values may update on different source schedules. Return and risk statistics are calculated from historical price series.

This content is curated and reviewed by:

Rifka Kats - Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board
Last reviewed on February 22nd, 2026