Vanguard Target Retirement Fund Volatility

VFIFX Fund  USD 58.33  -0.20  -0.34%   
Vanguard Target Retirement shows relatively low price volatility over the last 3 months. Vanguard Target Retirement indicates a Sharpe ratio of -0.0397, reflecting negative risk-adjusted performance over the last 3 months. The present risk profile is informed by 21 technical indicators.

Sharpe Ratio = -0.0397

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For Vanguard Target Retirement, recent data highlights a Risk of 0.78, a Total Risk Alpha of 0.05, and a Value At Risk of -1.55. VANGUARD TARGET is currently underperforming relative to its full potential based on monthly moving average. Adding it to a well-diversified portfolio context can help capture more of its return potential.
Key indicators related to VANGUARD TARGET's volatility include:
90 Days Market Risk
Chance Of Distress
90 Days Economic Sensitivity
Volatility for VANGUARD TARGET measures the dispersion of its mutual fund returns around their average. High-volatility mutual funds offer greater return potential but require more active risk management.
  

Volatility Strategy

Volatility in Vanguard Target Retirement reflects changing market conditions that influence diversification outcomes. Current statistical measures show total volatility near 0.78% with a beta coefficient of 0.79, indicating sensitivity relative to the broader market benchmark. Risk-adjusted efficiency, represented by a Sharpe ratio of -0.0397, evaluates return per unit of total risk. An alpha value of 0.0431 reflects performance relative to systematic market exposure. Expected return estimates near -0.0311% are derived from historical distribution modeling and help frame forward-looking return assumptions within a portfolio context. Volatility effects depend on underlying market structure and exposure characteristics.

Main indicators related to VANGUARD TARGET's market risk premium analysis include:

 Beta
0.79
 Alpha
0.0431
 Risk
0.78
 Sharpe Ratio
-0.04
 Expected Return
-0.03

Moving together with VANGUARD Mutual Fund

  0.87VMIAX Vanguard Materials IndexPairCorr
  0.64VMNVX Vanguard Global MinimumPairCorr
  0.88VMMSX Vanguard Emerging MarketsPairCorr
  0.92VMSIX Vanguard Multi SectorPairCorr
  0.82VMVAX Vanguard Mid CapPairCorr
  0.82VMVIX Vanguard Mid CapPairCorr
  0.64VMVFX Vanguard Global MinimumPairCorr
  0.81VMVLX Vanguard Mega CapPairCorr
  0.72VNJUX Vanguard New JerseyPairCorr
  0.72VNJTX Vanguard New JerseyPairCorr
  0.61VNYTX Vanguard New YorkPairCorr
  0.61VNYUX Vanguard New YorkPairCorr
  0.64VOHIX Vanguard Ohio LongPairCorr
  0.75VPADX Vanguard Pacific StockPairCorr
  0.66VPALX Vanguard PennsylvaniaPairCorr
  0.68VPAIX Vanguard PennsylvaniaPairCorr
  0.93VPMCX Vanguard PrimecapPairCorr
  0.75VPMAX Vanguard PrimecapPairCorr
  0.91VAGVX Vanguard Advice SelectPairCorr
  0.86VSCIX Vanguard Small CapPairCorr
  0.98VSCGX Vanguard LifestrategyPairCorr
  0.93VSCPX Vanguard Small CapPairCorr
  0.8VSCSX Vanguard Short TermPairCorr

Sensitivity To Market

The beta coefficient of 0.79 for Vanguard Target Retirement measures how its returns respond to broader market changes. In regression terms, beta captures the slope between asset returns and index returns. Historical volatility is currently near 0.78%.Vanguard Target Retirement return patterns over the selected horizon reflect a minimal level of variability, based on dispersion and downside-focused statistics. Funds can appear less volatile than single stocks when holdings are diversified across many issuers.
Check current 90 days VANGUARD TARGET correlation with market (Dow Jones Industrial)
α0.04   β0.79
3 Months Beta |Analyze Vanguard Target Demand Trend
Check current 90 days VANGUARD TARGET correlation with market (Dow Jones Industrial)

Downside Risk

Standard deviation of VANGUARD quantifies daily price dispersion around the mean over your chosen time horizon. A high standard deviation signals high volatility; a low one signals stability.
Standard Deviation
    
  0.78  
Understanding the asymmetry between upside and downside risk is critical for investors in VANGUARD TARGET. Standard deviation measures total price dispersion including upside, while downside deviation captures only loss risk in VANGUARD TARGET's returns. For Vanguard Target Retirement, recent data highlights a Maximum Drawdown of 3.84.

Mutual Fund Volatility Analysis

Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of VANGUARD TARGET mutual fund returns over a given period of time. Volatility measures how much VANGUARD TARGET's mutual fund price deviates from its average over a period.
Transformation
This analysis covers sixty-one data points across the selected time horizon. Vanguard Target Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input.

Projected Return Density Against Market

Assuming a 90-day horizon VANGUARD TARGET has a beta of 0.789 . This entails as returns on the market go up, VANGUARD TARGET's average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during a bear market, the loss from holding Vanguard Target Retirement is expected to be smaller as well.
VANGUARD TARGET carries exposure to broad market movements as well as company or sector-specific developments. While portfolio diversification can reduce asset-level risk, systematic volatility cannot be avoided. Standard deviation and beta quantify this exposure. For Vanguard Target Retirement, recent data highlights a Mean Deviation of 0.59 and a Standard Deviation of 0.77.
Vanguard Target Retirement has an alpha of 0.0431, implying that it can generate a 0.0431 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherent market risk (beta).
   Predicted Return Distribution   
       Density  
VANGUARD TARGET's volatility is typically evaluated with standard deviation and beta. Standard deviation reflects how far VANGUARD TARGET's returns usually move from the mean over the selected horizon.

What Drives VANGUARD TARGET's Price Volatility?

Industry Dynamics

Supply chain stress, pricing pressure, or consolidation in the Vanguard sector can alter VANGUARD TARGET's day-to-day volatility profile.

Political and Economic Environment

Broad market tone, policy uncertainty, and recession or expansion signals shape volatility conditions for VANGUARD TARGET.

VANGUARD TARGET's Company-Specific Factors

Unexpected business updates, leadership changes, or legal outcomes can drive outsized moves in VANGUARD TARGET's stock.

Mutual Fund Risk Measures

Assuming a 90-day horizon the coefficient of variation of VANGUARD TARGET is -2517.41. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 0.61 and standard deviation of 0.78. The mean deviation of Vanguard Target Retirement is currently at 0.59. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (Dow Jones Industrial) has volatility of 0.82
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.04
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.79
σ
Overall volatility
0.78
Ir
Information ratio 0.07

Mutual Fund Return Volatility

Volatility for VANGUARD TARGET quantifies the day-to-day dispersion of fund returns around their historical average. The fund carries 0.7825% return volatility across the 90-day horizon. As a benchmark, Dow Jones Industrial has volatility of 0.8413% on return distribution over a 90-day investment horizon.
 Performance 
       Timeline  

Related Correlations Analysis


Risk-Adjusted Indicators

Headline performance for VANGUARD Mutual Fund may not fully reflect how the business compares across its competitive set. Peer-relative risk metrics add context on drawdown behavior, consistency, and return quality. These indicators are quantitative in nature and help investors evaluate volatility and risk-adjusted expected returns across different positions.

Risk Metrics, Assumptions & Methodology

Volatility for VANGUARD TARGET reflects NAV dispersion and exposure stability across disclosure periods. Standard deviation provides a baseline measure of variability magnitude.

This section for Vanguard Target Retirement is built from fund disclosures and market reference feeds, with reporting definitions aligned before display. Values may update on different source schedules. Volatility and downside metrics are estimated from historical return dispersion.

This content is curated and reviewed by:

Gabriel Shpitalnik - Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board
Last reviewed on March 21st, 2026

VANGUARD TARGET Investment Opportunity

Recent data suggests that Dow Jones Industrial is meaningfully more volatile than Vanguard Target Retirement, by roughly a 1.08x factor. Used properly, this comparison helps frame whether the extra volatility in the peer is being compensated by stronger return potential.You can use Vanguard Target Retirement to protect the portfolio against small market fluctuations. This directional read frames the latest price swing through a simple momentum and follow-through lens. It works best as a directional cue rather than as a standalone forecast. a normal downward trend and little activity. Check odds of VANGUARD TARGET to be traded at $57.75 in 90 days.
Very poor diversification
The correlation between VANGUARD TARGET and Dow Jones is 0.8, which Macroaxis classifies as Very poor diversification for the selected horizon. The overlap area shows the portion of risk that can be diversified away by holding both instruments together.

VANGUARD TARGET Additional Risk Indicators

Secondary risk indicators for Vanguard Target Retirement can help investors evaluate exposure beyond standard deviation, beta, or one headline volatility measure. The practical goal is to identify how much risk is being accepted and whether that risk still fits the thesis.

VANGUARD TARGET Suggested Diversification Pairs

Using VANGUARD TARGET in a pair-trading setup can improve risk control because gains and losses are judged against a second position instead of against the market alone. The advantage is that adverse movement in one leg may be partly offset by the other when correlation and thesis alignment hold.
Risk reduction through pair trading is real but has limits - not every type of exposure can be offset by a second leg. VANGUARD TARGET's exposure to overall market risk stays intact regardless of pairing. The value of a second leg lies in reducing VANGUARD TARGET's idiosyncratic risk - the part that comes from company-level events rather than macro conditions.