First Watch Valuation
| FWRG Stock | USD 12.18 -0.21 -1.69% |
Macroaxis currently views First Watch as undervalued, with a model-derived Real Value of $14.29 per share versus a market price of $12.18. The model forms its estimate from First Watch fundamentals, including current valuation of $1.73B, profit margin of 2%, and shares outstanding of 61.14M, alongside its technical indicators and probability of bankruptcy. The valuation gap may narrow over time if market price begins to reflect the same drivers captured by the model. The main factors affecting First Watch's valuation include:
Year-over-year analysis suggests Cash is positioned to increase significantly. Last year’s filings placed Cash at 21.25 Million. As of the beginning of March, Change To Account Receivables is projected to grow to approximately 394.8 K, despite previous gains, Accounts Payable is estimated to retreat toward roughly 7.6 M.
Price Book 1.189 | Enterprise Value | Enterprise Value Ebitda 16.6798 | Price Sales 0.6091 | Forward PE 114.9425 |
Undervalued
Today
Right now, the market is showing Stable price fluctuation for First Watch. Our intrinsic value estimate for First Watch Restaurant is anchored to a 3 months horizon. Increasing the horizon tends to sharpen the value estimate and improve the signal quality behind the methodology.
The fair value estimate for the First stock is tied to what a rational buyer might pay for control of First Watch Restaurant. As First Watch trades in the market, its quoted value is determined by buyers and sellers rather than by the model alone. Price can deviate from underlying value, and that disconnect may become relevant if the market later re-prices the asset more efficiently. | Historical | Market 12.18 | Real 14.29 | Target 19.5 | Hype 11.9 | Naive 13.19 |
Determining the intrinsic value of First Watch requires projecting its long-term cash generation and applying an appropriate discount rate. Other methods such as price-to-earnings or enterprise value multiples can also shed light on First Watch's fair value.
The upside and downside scenario analysis for First Watch Restaurant provides investors with a roadmap for position management. First stock fair value is best estimated by combining fundamental analysis with market-based signals.Valuing First Watch Restaurant is part art and part science. Rigorous financial modeling provides the quantitative backbone, while an informed assessment of First Watch's competitive position and management quality shapes the qualitative overlay.
Main Profitability Drivers
On a profitability basis, First Watch carries a 1.59% net margin and a 3.17% operating margin. Non-operating charges narrow First Watch's margins by roughly 1.58 percentage points between the operating and net income lines. On 1.22 Billion of revenue, First Watch earned 247.39 Million in gross profit and 19.43 Million on the bottom line. With ROE at 3.18% and ROA at 1.30%, these return measures help contextualize First Watch's profitability relative to its balance sheet. The weight of evidence across First Watch's profitability measures points to strengthening financial performance. For a deeper look, explore First Watch's profitability breakdown.
Price Book 1.189 | Gross Profit | Price Sales 0.6091 | Profit Margin | Enterprise Value Revenue 1.4168 |
First Watch Cash | 37.4 Million |
Revenue by Product
First Watch Restaurant reports income from 7 product segments. First Watch's revenue is anchored by In-Restaurant Dining Sales (480.79 Million, 52.5%), followed by Franchisor Owned Outlet (313.96 Million, 34.3%). While one segment leads, First Watch's remaining product lines provide a degree of revenue balance.Total Value Analysis
From a capital-structure perspective, First Watch Restaurant is being framed with enterprise value of 1.73 B, market capitalization of 744.66 M, debt obligations near 739.6 M, and cash resources of 53.57 M. Investors should review First Watch fundamentals before making decisions based too heavily on enterprise value alone.| Takeover Price | Market Cap | Debt Obligations | Cash |
1.73 B | 744.66 M | 739.6 M | 53.57 M |
Investor Information
About 97.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.19. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. First Watch Restaurant has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.17. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Earnings generation and capital deployment remain aligned within First Watch financial model. Operating returns remain positive, suggesting ongoing earnings capacity. Consumer-oriented businesses are often evaluated through revenue consistency, margin stability, and inventory management.Asset Utilization
The asset utilization indicator refers to the revenue earned for every dollar of assets a company currently reports. First Watch has an asset utilization ratio of 70.18 percent. This implies that the Company is making $0.7 for each dollar of assets. An increasing asset utilization means that First Watch Restaurant is more efficient with each dollar of assets it utilizes for everyday operations.Macro event markers
Profitability Analysis
Considering the key profitability indicators obtained from First Watch's historical financial statements, First Watch Restaurant is performing exceptionally well at the present time. The data suggests it has a great chance to showcase excellent profitability results in April. Profitability indicators assess First Watch's ability to earn profits and add value for shareholders.Net Income | First Reported 2020-03-31 | Previous Quarter 3 M | Current Value 15.2 M | Quarterly Volatility 7.5 M |
Macro event markers
| Current Value | Last Year | Change From Last Year | 10 Year Trend | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Profit Margin | 0.2 | 0.2132 |
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The profitability module for First Watch Restaurant is designed to show how the business generates income relative to revenue, assets, expenses, and shareholder capital. This section becomes more actionable when the company is compared against peers rather than analyzed in isolation.
Earnings per Share Projection vs Actual
By analyzing First Watch's earnings estimates, investors can diagnose trend shifts in analyst expectations and compare EPS projections across timeframes. For First Watch, EPS is most informative when read together with margin stability and cash-flow conversion. When reviewing projected earnings per share for First Watch Restaurant, investors should keep in mind that consensus EPS estimates can include assumptions that smooth non-recurring items and stock-compensation effects. First Watch is projected to generate 0.0481 in earnings per share on 31st of December 2026. Earnings forecast analysis also matters because changes in EPS expectations can influence both valuation work and near-term price reaction.Macro event markers
Ownership Allocation
The majority of First Watch's outstanding shares are owned by institutional holders. Large asset managers, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds that invest on behalf of clients or beneficiaries are typically subject to stricter disclosure rules than retail investors - including mandatory 13F filings that reveal quarterly position changes. Tracking these filings can highlight shifts in institutional conviction around First Watch. First Watch's share base consists of approximately 97% institutional ownership, 3% insider ownership, and 0% public float.Revenue and Profit Overview
The company reported previous year's revenue of 1.22 B. Net Income was 19.43 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 247.39 M.A useful valuation read on First Watch Restaurant comes from comparing price, business quality, and capital structure instead of relying on a single headline multiple. That usually means reviewing cash-flow quality, capital structure, and risk behavior before reaching a fair-value conclusion.
Valuation Framework, Methodology & Assumptions
First Watch is a small-cap equity in Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure, Consumer Services, Consumer Discretionary categories. Market multiples reflect competitive positioning. First Watch currently trades at P/E of 282.5, P/B of 1.19, P/S of 0.61.
Macroaxis compiles First Watch Restaurant metrics from periodic company reporting and market reference feeds and applies consistent transformation rules before display. Not all fields update in real time. Valuation outputs are model-derived and depend on published assumptions and reference inputs.
This content is curated and reviewed by:
Gabriel Shpitalnik - Member of Macroaxis Editorial BoardGrowth Indicators
When investors treat First Watch Restaurant as a growth opportunity, they are usually paying for future execution rather than only for current fundamentals. This framework is most valuable when investors want to know whether the company can grow efficiently rather than simply grow quickly.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 62.8 M | |
| Quarterly Earnings Growth Y O Y | 22.903 | |
| Forward Price Earnings | 114.9425 |
First Watch Current Valuation Indicators
Valuation for First Watch Restaurant estimates what the business is worth using profits, assets, debt, and expected earnings rather than price alone. Earnings multiples, cash-flow yields, and asset-based measures work best as a group rather than in isolation.
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