Mercury General Stock Price Prediction
| MCY Stock | USD 91.52 1.07 1.16% |
Momentum 73
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.214 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.97 | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.8 | EPS Estimate Next Year 8.4 | Wall Street Target Price 100 |
Using Mercury General hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Mercury General from the perspective of Mercury General response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Mercury General using Mercury General's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Mercury using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Mercury General's stock price.
Mercury General Short Interest
An investor who is long Mercury General may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Mercury General and may potentially protect profits, hedge Mercury General with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 68.7956 | Short Percent 0.0733 | Short Ratio 8.6 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.8 M | 50 Day MA 83.9178 |
Mercury General Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Mercury General's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Mercury. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Mercury can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Mercury General. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Mercury General's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Mercury General.
Mercury General Implied Volatility | 0.38 |
Mercury General's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Mercury General stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Mercury General's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Mercury General stock will not fluctuate a lot when Mercury General's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Mercury General to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Mercury because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Mercury General after-hype prediction price | USD 91.86 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Mercury contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Mercury General will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0238% per day over the life of the 2026-01-16 option contract. With Mercury General trading at USD 91.52, that is roughly USD 0.0217 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Mercury General's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Mercury General options at the current volatility level of 0.38%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Mercury General Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mercury General's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Mercury General After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Mercury General at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Mercury General or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Mercury General, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Mercury General Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Mercury General's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Mercury General's historical news coverage. Mercury General's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 90.29 and 93.43, respectively. We have considered Mercury General's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Mercury General is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Mercury General is based on 3 months time horizon.
Mercury General Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Mercury General is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Mercury General backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Mercury General, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.25 | 1.56 | 0.30 | 0.12 | 6 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
91.52 | 91.86 | 0.37 |
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Mercury General Hype Timeline
On the 3rd of December Mercury General is traded for 91.52. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.3, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.12. Mercury is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 91.86 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 132.2%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.37%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.25%. The volatility of related hype on Mercury General is about 322.48%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 91.64. The company reported the last year's revenue of 5.48 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 467.95 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 956.17 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Mercury General Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Mercury General Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Mercury General's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Mercury General's future price movements. Getting to know how Mercury General's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Mercury General may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DTTLY | Datatec Limited | 3.83 | 13 per month | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 19.21 | |
| ENDMF | Enduro Metals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.09 | 0.01 | 9.09 | (8.33) | 18.33 | |
| SOSO | Storage Computer | 0.00 | 5 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| ZIJMF | Zijin Mining Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.48 | 0.11 | 4.88 | (4.96) | 16.38 | |
| DTATF | Data3 Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.53 | |
| PMNXF | Perseus Mining Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.09 | 0.21 | 5.15 | (4.27) | 15.72 | |
| FREDF | Fredonia Mining | 0.04 | 2 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| BMOOF | Blue Moon Metals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.25 | 0.05 | 5.00 | (4.76) | 32.53 |
Mercury General Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Mercury price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Mercury using various technical indicators. When you analyze Mercury charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
| Absolute Price Oscillator | ||
| Plus Directional Indicator | ||
| Stochastic | ||
| Momentum | ||
| Aroon | ||
| Ultimate Oscillator | ||
| MACD with controllable MA type | ||
| Rate of change ratio | ||
| Chande Momentum Oscillator | ||
| Balance Of Power |
About Mercury General Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Mercury General stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Mercury General, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Mercury General based on analysis of Mercury General hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Mercury General's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Mercury General's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0557 | 0.034 | 0.0191 | 0.0293 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.52 | 0.45 | 0.67 | 1.13 |
Story Coverage note for Mercury General
The number of cover stories for Mercury General depends on current market conditions and Mercury General's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Mercury General is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Mercury General's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Mercury General Short Properties
Mercury General's future price predictability will typically decrease when Mercury General's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Mercury General often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Mercury General's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mercury General's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 55.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1 B |
Additional Tools for Mercury Stock Analysis
When running Mercury General's price analysis, check to measure Mercury General's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Mercury General is operating at the current time. Most of Mercury General's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Mercury General's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Mercury General's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Mercury General to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.