Timothy Small Cap Value Fund Manager Performance Evaluation

TPVIX Fund  USD 18.97  0.09  0.48%   
The fund secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 1.06, which means a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. TIMOTHY SMALL-CAP tracks the broader market closely, rising and falling roughly in step with the benchmark.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Soft
 
Weak
 
Strong
Across the last 90 days, the risk-adjusted return profile of Timothy Small Cap Value is weaker than 1% of the funds and fund portfolios reviewed by Macroaxis. Used properly, the ranking helps separate absolute gains from efficient gains. Despite somewhat strong forward indicators, TIMOTHY SMALL-CAP is not utilizing all of its potential. The current price disturbance may contribute to short-term losses for investors. Learn More
Expense Ratio Date24th of February 2026
Expense Ratio1.2500
  

Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you had invested $ 1,887 in Timothy Small Cap Value on December 16, 2025 and sold it today you would have earned a total of $ 10.00 from holding Timothy Small Cap Value or generated 0.53% return on investment over 90 days. Timothy Small Cap Value is currently producing a 0.0133% return and carries 0.9854% volatility of returns over 90 trading days. Put another way, 8% of traded mutual funds are less volatile than TIMOTHY, and 99% of all traded equity instruments are likely to generate higher returns over the next 90 trading days.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
This comparison focuses on expected return, realized volatility, and risk efficiency versus the market. It highlights whether the current reward profile compensates for the level of uncertainty assumed. Assuming a 90-day horizon TIMOTHY SMALL-CAP is expected to generate 1.25 times more return on investment than the market. However, the fund is 1.25 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about 0.01 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly -0.06 per unit of risk.

Historical Prices of Timothy Small Cap

Below is the normalized historical share price chart for Timothy Small Cap Value extending back to August 01, 2013. This chart has been adjusted for all splits and dividends and is plotted against all major global economic recessions. As of today, the current price of TIMOTHY SMALL-CAP stands at 18.97, as last reported on the 16th of March 2026, with the highest price reaching 18.97 and the lowest price hitting 18.97 during the day.
Macro event markers
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
 
Interest Hikes

Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

For TIMOTHY Mutual Fund, the tendency of price to converge toward a long-term average provides a useful baseline for forecasting. Nonetheless, studies have found that some funds are persistently mispriced, with the spread correcting only when market dynamics shift significantly.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds moving above the current price in 90 days
18.97 90 days 18.97
about 84.13
Based on standard probability analysis, the odds of TIMOTHY SMALL-CAP moving above the current price in 90 days from now are about 84.13 (The chart above shows the probability distribution of TIMOTHY Mutual Fund prices over the next 90 days).
Assuming a 90-day horizon the mutual fund has the beta coefficient of 1.06 . This usually implies Timothy Small Cap Value market returns are sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, TIMOTHY SMALL-CAP is expected to follow. Additionally, Timothy Small Cap Value has an alpha of 0.0668, implying that it can generate a 0.0668 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherent market risk (beta).
   TIMOTHY SMALL-CAP Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for TIMOTHY SMALL-CAP

Accurately predicting the fund market is one of the most challenging tasks in investing. For Timothy Small Cap, a range of forecasting tools can be applied, though none offer certainty. Despite this, systematic forecasting is a critical step in the investment process - comparing methods and results helps investors develop a more nuanced view of potential outcomes.
The mean reversion principle applied to TIMOTHY SMALL-CAP's suggests that neither prolonged outperformance nor underperformance is permanent. Investors exploit this by positioning against extremes in price relative to fundamental value.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
17.9818.9719.96
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
18.1119.1020.09
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
17.3118.3019.28
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
18.7219.8721.02
Details
Peer comparison enriches TIMOTHY SMALL-CAP analysis by revealing how the company ranks against competitors on key metrics. This relative perspective often changes investment conclusions drawn from standalone fundamental analysis.

Primary Risk Indicators

The past 10-20 years have brought considerable volatility to the mutual fund market, and TIMOTHY SMALL-CAP has been no exception. Sharp price drops and strong rallies have made hedging an important tool for managing portfolio risk. Investors in Timothy Small Cap Value should monitor TIMOTHY SMALL-CAP's fundamental risk indicators to stay ahead of market swings.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.07
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.06
σ
Overall volatility
0.60
Ir
Information ratio 0.06

Investor Alerts and Insights

Alerts and suggestions for TIMOTHY SMALL-CAP give investors a structured way to monitor the fund for material events. Timothy Small Cap notifications flag important changes in technical indicators, fundamentals, and market conditions that may warrant attention.
The fund maintains 99.11% of its assets in stocks

TIMOTHY SMALL-CAP Fundamentals Growth

TIMOTHY Mutual Fund performance is fundamentally tied to TIMOTHY SMALL-CAP's financial health and growth outlook. Revenue and earnings trends, operating margins, and capital structure decisions all play a significant role in shaping investor expectations for TIMOTHY Mutual Fund.

Performance Metrics & Calculation Methodology

TIMOTHY SMALL-CAP performance is typically evaluated through NAV-based returns relative to category peers and stated objectives. Market sensitivity appears generally aligned with broader economic conditions.

Inputs for Timothy Small Cap Value come from fund disclosures and market reference feeds and are mapped into a consistent schema for analysis. Some fields can appear with publication lag. Return and risk statistics are calculated from historical price series.

This content is curated and reviewed by:

Michael Smolkin - Member of Macroaxis Board of Directors
Last reviewed on March 10th, 2026