Tilray Inc Stock Performance

TLRY Stock  CAD 9.51  -0.32  -3.26%   
The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 0.0802, which alludes to relatively modest fluctuations relative to the market. Returns on Tilray tend to trail the broader market in strong rallies but hold up better when sentiment turns negative. At this point, Tilray Inc has a negative expected return of -0.64%. Please make sure to validate Tilray's value at risk, downside variance, and the relationship between the treynor ratio and expected short fall, to decide if Tilray Inc's performance from the past will be repeated sooner or later.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Weak
 
Weak
 
Strong
Over the last 90 days, Tilray Inc generated negative risk-adjusted returns and added little value for investors with long positions. The result matters because weak risk-adjusted return can persist even when isolated price moves briefly look constructive. In spite of weak performance in the last few months, the stock's basic indicators remain very healthy, which may send shares a bit higher in April 2026. The recent disarray may also be a sign of long period up-swing for the firm's investors. Learn More
 Last Split Factor
1:10
 Last Split Date
2025-12-02
Begin Period Cash Flow228.3 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-46.7 M
  

Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you had invested C$ 1,507 in Tilray Inc on December 13, 2025 and sold it today you would have lost C$ 556.00 from holding Tilray Inc or given up 36.89% of portfolio value over 90 days. Tilray Inc is generating negative expected returns and shows 5.1044% volatility on return distribution over a 90-day horizon. Simply put, 45% of stocks are less volatile than Tilray, and 99% of all equity instruments are likely to generate higher returns than the company over the next 90 trading days.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
This benchmark view frames the instrument through return capture and volatility trade-offs. It is intended to show how efficiently risk has translated into return over the selected horizon. Assuming the 90-day trading horizon Tilray is expected to under-perform the market. In addition to that, the company is 6.44 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about -0.13 of its total potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly -0.08 per unit of volatility.

Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The pattern of price convergence toward an average value is one of the most reliable features of organized stock markets. For Tilray Stock, this behavior has been used by investors as a forecasting baseline, though some stocks exhibit notable delays before mispricing is corrected.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds moving above the current price in 90 days
9.51 90 days 9.51
about 86.95
A probability distribution analysis shows that the odds of Tilray moving above the current price in 90 days from now are about 86.95 (The curve above represents the probability density of Tilray Stock prices across the next 90 days).
Assuming the 90-day trading horizon Tilray has a beta of 0.0802. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Tilray's average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during a bear market, the loss from holding Tilray Inc is expected to be smaller as well. Additionally, Tilray Inc has an alpha of 0.1393, implying that it can generate a 0.1393 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherent market risk (beta).
   Tilray Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Tilray

Forecasting techniques for the stock market vary widely in methodology and complexity. For instruments such as Tilray Inc, combining multiple approaches provides a more robust view than relying on any single model. Market surprises are inevitable, but disciplined forecasting still improves overall investment decision-making.
Investors who believe in mean reversion view Tilray's price extremes not as permanent states but as temporary dislocations that create opportunities for disciplined, contrarian capital allocation.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
4.529.6214.72
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
4.039.1314.23
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
3.458.5513.66
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.070.070.07
Details
A complete picture of Tilray's investment merit requires comparative analysis. How Tilray's growth rates, profitability, and capital efficiency stack up against peers is often the deciding factor in investment decisions.

Primary Risk Indicators

The last 10-20 years have demonstrated just how volatile the stock market can be. Tilray has been part of this story, with corrections and rallies that have made and broken portfolios. Holding Tilray Inc with a hedging strategy informed by Tilray's risk indicators is one way to limit downside exposure.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.14
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.08
σ
Overall volatility
2.10
Ir
Information ratio 0.02

Investor Alerts and Insights

Timely alerts on Tilray help investors identify important shifts in stock conditions early. Reviewing Tilray Inc notifications is an efficient way to stay current on technical patterns, fundamental changes, and market-moving headlines.
Tilray Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Tilray Inc has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Tilray Inc has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years
The company reported revenue of 821.31 M. Net Loss for the year was -2.18 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 234.67 M.
Tilray Inc has accumulated about 490.64 M in cash with -94.6 M of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.8.
Latest headline from news.google.com: Risk-Controlled Trading Report - Stock Traders Daily

Price Density Drivers

The indicators below capture the key forces that influence Tilray's near-term price action, including the dynamics between long and short market participants. Reviewing these metrics helps investors contextualize Tilray price movements and anticipate potential volatility shifts.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding90.8 M
Cash And Short Term Investments256.4 M

Tilray Fundamentals Growth

Understanding Tilray Stock requires a close look at Tilray's financial fundamentals. Revenue growth, earnings consistency, operating margins, and capital structure are the principal factors that influence Tilray Stock market performance.

Performance Metrics & Calculation Methodology

Tilray performance is measured on a risk-adjusted basis against benchmarks. Tracking difference (where applicable) can separate exposure returns from implementation effects. Tilray shows ROE of -84.14%, ROA of -1.51%.

This section for Tilray Inc is built from periodic company reporting and market reference feeds, with harmonization applied to align reporting definitions. Values may update on different source schedules. Return and risk statistics are calculated from historical price series.

This content is curated and reviewed by:

Gabriel Shpitalnik - Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board