Semtech Stock Performance

SMTC Stock  USD 73.60  -4.75  -6.06%   
The company owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of -0.5, which alludes to generally lower market sensitivity than the broad market. As returns on the market increase, returns on Semtech tend to move in the opposite direction, though by a smaller magnitude. During a bear market, however, Semtech is likely to outperform the market. Semtech right now owns a risk of 3.77%.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Weak
 
Weak
 
Strong
Over the last 90 days, Semtech generated negative risk-adjusted returns and added little value for investors with long positions. Current market capitalization is about 6.81 Billion. In spite of rather sound basic indicators, Semtech is not utilizing all of its potential. The newest price tumult may contribute to shorter-term losses for shareholders. Learn More
Begin Period Cash Flow128.6 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-11.9 M

Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you had invested $ 7,530 in Semtech on December 22, 2025 and sold it today you would have lost $ 170.00 from holding Semtech or given up 2.26% of portfolio value over 90 days. Semtech is currently generating a 0.0333% daily expected return and carries 3.7663% risk (volatility on return distribution) over a 90-day horizon. In different words, 33% of stocks are less volatile than Semtech, and 99% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
This market-relative note looks at return potential and the amount of risk required to get it. It is intended to show how efficiently risk has translated into return over the selected horizon. Given the investment horizon of 90 days Semtech is expected to generate 4.6 times more return on investment than the market. However, the company is 4.6 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about 0.01 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly -0.11 per unit of risk.

Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

Price forecasting for Semtech Stock often builds on the principle of mean reversion, where prices tend to converge toward historical averages. While this pattern is broadly applicable across stocks, persistent mispricings in some instruments highlight the role of additional risk factors in pricing dynamics.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds moving above the current price in 90 days
73.60 90 days 73.60
about 92.25
Based on probability analysis of this stock, the likelihood of Semtech moving above the current price in 90 days from now is about 92.25 (This stock probability distribution maps the expected range of Semtech Stock prices over 90 days).
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Semtech has a beta of -0.5. This usually implies that as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on Semtech tend to move in the opposite direction, though by a smaller magnitude. During a bear market, however, Semtech is likely to outperform the market. Additionally, Semtech has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Semtech Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Semtech

No single forecasting method can reliably predict the stock market, but the practice of applying multiple models to instruments like Semtech remains a core element of investment analysis. Comparing results supports building a more complete picture and prepare for a range of potential outcomes.
The degree to which Semtech's exhibits mean reversion depends on how efficiently the market prices new information. In highly covered equities, the mean reversion window tends to be shorter.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
69.8373.6077.37
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
62.5266.2980.96
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
65.9569.7173.48
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
73.5585.3497.12
Details
Evaluating Semtech in context means comparing Semtech's to its competitive peer group. A company estimated as undervalued in absolute terms may be differently positioned when measured against sector-relative benchmarks.

Primary Risk Indicators

Over the past 10-20 years, the stock market has seen violent swings that have tested investor resolve. Semtech has been part of this volatility. Those holding Semtech should consider a hedging strategy that accounts for Semtech's changing volatility and market elasticity to limit downside losses.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.026
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.5
σ
Overall volatility
5.97
Ir
Information ratio 0.03

Investor Alerts and Insights

Stocks like Semtech can experience rapid changes in technical and fundamental conditions. Setting up alerts for Semtech ensures investors receive timely notifications about significant developments that may affect their positions.
Semtech had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
The company reported previous year's revenue of 1.05 B. Net Loss for the year was -161.9 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 551.4 M.
Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors

Price Density Drivers

Price density analysis for Semtech focuses on the forces that drive short-term price movements. The indicators below highlight key market dynamics including the balance between long and short positioning, volume patterns, and volatility trends.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding88.4 M
Cash And Short Term Investments195.2 M

Semtech Fundamentals Growth

Semtech's revenue trajectory, earnings quality, and financial leverage are the key fundamentals that drive Semtech Stock market valuation. Investors who track these metrics gain a clearer view of the forces shaping Semtech Stock price behavior.

Performance Metrics & Calculation Methodology

Semtech performance is measured on a risk-adjusted basis against benchmarks. Risk-return balance shapes allocation context across cycles. Semtech shows ROE of -7.4%, ROA of 5.85%.

Unless otherwise specified, data for Semtech is compiled from periodic company reporting and market reference feeds and standardized for comparability. Updates may occur throughout the day. Return and risk statistics are calculated from historical price series.

This content is curated and reviewed by:

Raphi Shpitalnik - Junior Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board
Last reviewed on March 5th, 2026