Shopify Stock Performance

SHOP Stock  CAD 170.06  -5.08  -2.90%   
The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of -0.8, which alludes to possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. Returns on Shopify tend to move against the broader market, though the counter-movement is modest relative to the index. At this point, Shopify has a negative expected return of -0.46%. Please make sure to validate Shopify's potential upside, skewness, and the relationship between the value at risk and kurtosis, to decide if Shopify's performance from the past will be repeated sooner or later.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Weak
 
Weak
 
Strong
Shopify has delivered negative risk-adjusted returns across the last 90 days, suggesting that volatility was not compensated by return. Used correctly, this score supports evaluation of raw price movement versus actual return efficiency. In spite of unfluctuating performance in the last few months, the stock's basic indicators remain very healthy, which may send shares a bit higher in April 2026. The recent disarray may also be a sign of long period up-swing for the firm's investors. Learn More
Begin Period Cash Flow1.6 B
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-1.2 B
  

Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you had invested C$ 23,338 in Shopify on December 20, 2025 and sold it today you would have lost C$ 6,332 from holding Shopify or given up 27.13% of portfolio value over 90 days. Shopify is generating negative expected returns and shows 3.6494% volatility on return distribution over a 90-day horizon. Simply put, 32% of stocks are less volatile than Shopify, and 99% of all equity instruments are likely to generate higher returns than the company over the next 90 trading days.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
This benchmark view frames the instrument through return capture and volatility trade-offs. It is intended to show how efficiently risk has translated into return over the selected horizon. Assuming the 90-day trading horizon Shopify is expected to under-perform the market. In addition to that, the company is 4.43 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about -0.13 of its total potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly -0.1 per unit of volatility.

Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The pattern of price convergence toward an average value is one of the most reliable features of organized stock markets. For Shopify Stock, this behavior has been used by investors as a forecasting baseline, though some stocks exhibit notable delays before mispricing is corrected.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds moving above the current price in 90 days
170.06 90 days 170.06
about 78.55
A probability distribution analysis shows that the odds of Shopify moving above the current price in 90 days from now are about 78.55 (The curve above represents the probability density of Shopify Stock prices across the next 90 days).
Assuming the 90-day trading horizon Shopify has a beta of -0.8. This usually implies that as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on Shopify tend to move in the opposite direction, though by a smaller magnitude. During a bear market, however, Shopify is likely to outperform the market. Additionally, Shopify has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Shopify Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Shopify

Forecasting techniques for the stock market vary widely in methodology and complexity. For instruments such as Shopify, combining multiple approaches provides a more robust view than relying on any single model. Market surprises are inevitable, but disciplined forecasting still improves overall investment decision-making.
Investors who believe in mean reversion view Shopify's price extremes not as permanent states but as temporary dislocations that create opportunities for disciplined, contrarian capital allocation.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
138.63142.28187.07
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
142.65146.30187.07
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
151.83155.48159.13
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
154.67169.61184.55
Details
A complete picture of Shopify's investment merit requires comparative analysis. How Shopify's growth rates, profitability, and capital efficiency stack up against peers is often the deciding factor in investment decisions.

Primary Risk Indicators

The last 10-20 years have demonstrated just how volatile the stock market can be. Shopify has been part of this story, with corrections and rallies that have made and broken portfolios. Holding Shopify with a hedging strategy informed by Shopify's risk indicators is one way to limit downside exposure.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.4518
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.8
σ
Overall volatility
28.64
Ir
Information ratio -0.0845

Investor Alerts and Insights

Timely alerts on Shopify help investors identify important shifts in stock conditions early. Reviewing Shopify notifications is an efficient way to stay current on technical patterns, fundamental changes, and market-moving headlines.
Shopify generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Shopify has high historical volatility and very poor performance
About 74.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from news.google.com: Revenue per share of Xtract One Technologies Inc HAM 0 PL - Trading View

Price Density Drivers

The indicators below capture the key forces that influence Shopify's near-term price action, including the dynamics between long and short market participants. Reviewing these metrics contextualizes Shopify price movements and anticipate potential volatility shifts.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.3 B
Cash And Short Term Investments5.8 B

Shopify Fundamentals Growth

Understanding Shopify Stock requires a close look at Shopify's financial fundamentals. Revenue growth, earnings consistency, operating margins, and capital structure are the principal factors that influence Shopify Stock market performance.

Performance Metrics & Calculation Methodology

Shopify performance is measured on a risk-adjusted basis against benchmarks. Tracking difference (where applicable) can separate exposure returns from implementation effects. Shopify shows ROE of 9.84%, ROA of 8.15%.

This section for Shopify is built from periodic company reporting and market reference feeds, with harmonization applied to align reporting definitions. Values may update on different source schedules. Return and risk statistics are calculated from historical price series.

This content is curated and reviewed by:

Ellen Johnson - Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board
Last reviewed on March 9th, 2026