TheRealReal Stock Performance
| REAL Stock | USD 9.45 0.01 0.11% |
The company has a beta of 2.14, which means a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, TheRealReal will likely underperform. At this point, TheRealReal has a negative expected return of -0.76%. Please make sure to check TheRealReal's skewness, and the relationship between the treynor ratio and rate of daily change, to decide if TheRealReal's performance from the past will be repeated at some future point.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Weak
Weak | Strong |
During the last 90 trading days, TheRealReal produced negative risk-adjusted performance, which signals weak return efficiency for investors with long positions. This reading is usually reviewed beside volatility, downside risk, and benchmark-relative behavior before conviction is increased. Despite weak performance in the last few months, the stock's basic indicators remain quite persistent, which may send shares a bit higher in April 2026. The latest mess may also be a sign of long-standing up-swing for the company's institutional investors. Learn More
Actual Historical Performance (%)
One Day Return -5.03 | Five Day Return -6.35 | Year To Date Return -40.25 | Ten Year Return -67.34 | All Time Return -67.34 |
1 | Real Reals Athena Authentication Rollout Puts Focus On Trust And Valuation | 01/22/2026 |
2 | Disposition of 5506 shares by Steve Lo of The Real Real at 5.102 subject to Rule 16 b-3 | 02/06/2026 |
3 | SYTES OFFICIALLY LAUNCHES TENANT DEMAND-DRIVEN MARKETPLACE MODERNIZING COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE LEASING | 02/11/2026 |
4 | The Real Real Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results | 02/26/2026 |
5 | The Real Real Inc Q 4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights Surpassing 2 Billion GMV and ... | 02/27/2026 |
6 | Real Real Reopens San Francisco Flagship As Brand And Valuation Questions Grow | 03/04/2026 |
7 | The Real Real Announces Board of Directors and Executive Leadership Updates | 03/09/2026 |
8 | ZD INVESTORS LOSE MONEY AS REPORTED NUMBERS MASKED REAL RESULTS -- LEVI KORSINSKY, LLP | 03/11/2026 |
9 | The Real Real to Participate in Fireside Chat at the 38 th Annual Roth Conference | 03/17/2026 |
| Begin Period Cash Flow | 187.1 M | |
| Total Cashflows From Investing Activities | -29.2 M |
TheRealReal | Build portfolio with TheRealReal Stock |
Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape
If you had invested $ 1,553 in TheRealReal on December 19, 2025 and sold it today you would have lost $ 609.00 from holding TheRealReal or given up 39.21% of portfolio value over 90 days. TheRealReal does not currently generate positive expected returns and carries 3.5305% risk (volatility on return distribution) over a 90-day horizon. In different words, 31% of stocks are less volatile than TheRealReal, and 99% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon. Expected Return |
| Risk |
Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price
The tendency of TheRealReal Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of organized markets for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded stocks are consistently mispriced before demand and supply correct the spread. One possible explanation is that these stocks carry additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds moving above the current price in 90 days |
| 9.45 | 90 days | 9.45 | roughly 96.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of TheRealReal moving above the current price in 90 days from now are roughly 96.0 (This TheRealReal probability density function shows the probability of TheRealReal Stock falling within a particular range of prices over 90 days).
TheRealReal Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for TheRealReal
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the stock market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual instruments such as TheRealReal. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of TheRealReal's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion.
Primary Risk Indicators
The last 10-20 years have been a volatile period for the stock market. TheRealReal is no exception. The market experienced several large corrections towards TheRealReal's value, including sharp drops and substantial rallies. An investor can limit portfolio swings by implementing a hedging strategy designed to reduce downside losses. If you hold TheRealReal, one way to protect your portfolio is to watch for changing volatility and market elasticity of TheRealReal within the framework of fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.3865 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.14 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.37 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.1367 |
Investor Alerts and Insights
Automated alerts tied to TheRealReal help investors stay ahead of material changes in stock conditions. Monitoring ongoing notifications for TheRealReal is a practical way to spot shifts in technical or fundamental signals that may affect investment timing.| TheRealReal generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| TheRealReal has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| TheRealReal has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported previous year's revenue of 692.85 M. Net Loss for the year was -41.8 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 516.82 M. | |
| TheRealReal has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: The Real Real to Participate in Fireside Chat at the 38 th Annual Roth Conference |
Price Density Drivers
Market volatility typically increases when nervous long traders begin to feel pressure from short-sellers driving the market lower. The future price of TheRealReal Stock often depends not only on the outlook of current and potential investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between traders with different styles. TheRealReal's indicators related to short sentiment are summarized below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 291.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 151.2 M |
TheRealReal Fundamentals Growth
TheRealReal Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of TheRealReal, and TheRealReal fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on TheRealReal Stock performance.
| Return On Equity | -9.33 | |||
| Return On Asset | -0.0361 | |||
| Profit Margin | -0.06 % | |||
| Operating Margin | 0.03 % | |||
| Current Valuation | 1.49 B | |||
| Shares Outstanding | 118.98 M | |||
| Price To Book | 4.84 X | |||
| Price To Sales | 1.71 X | |||
| Revenue | 692.85 M | |||
| Gross Profit | 516.82 M | |||
| EBITDA | 19.27 M | |||
| Net Income | -41.8 M | |||
| Cash And Equivalents | 315.89 M | |||
| Cash Per Share | 3.31 X | |||
| Total Debt | 463.25 M | |||
| Debt To Equity | 6.97 % | |||
| Current Ratio | 2.42 X | |||
| Book Value Per Share | -3.51 X | |||
| Cash Flow From Operations | 37.01 M | |||
| Earnings Per Share | -0.70 X | |||
| Market Capitalization | 1.18 B | |||
| Total Asset | 409.03 M | |||
| Retained Earnings | -1.3 B | |||
| Working Capital | -36.75 M | |||
| Current Asset | 3 K | |||
| Current Liabilities | 20 K | |||
Performance Metrics & Calculation Methodology
TheRealReal performance is measured on a risk-adjusted basis against benchmarks. Risk-adjusted measures provide context for return efficiency across regimes. TheRealReal shows ROE of -9.33%, ROA of -3.61%.
Unless otherwise specified, data for TheRealReal is compiled from periodic company reporting and market reference feeds and standardized for comparability. Sell-side coverage, where present, supplements the data shown. Updates may occur throughout the day. Return and risk statistics are calculated from historical price series.