MicroStrategy Incorporated Stock Performance

MSTR Stock  USD 139.70  2.36  1.72%   
The company owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of 2.98, which means a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, MicroStrategy Incorporated will likely underperform. At this point, MicroStrategy Incorporated has a negative expected return of -0.0842%. Please make sure to confirm MicroStrategy Incorporated's relationship between the daily balance of power and relative strength index, to decide if MicroStrategy Incorporated's performance from the past will be repeated in the future.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Weak
 
Weak
 
Strong
Over the last 90 days, MicroStrategy Incorporated generated negative risk-adjusted returns and added little value for investors with long positions. The result matters because weak risk-adjusted return can persist even when isolated price moves briefly look constructive. Even with relatively invariable basic indicators, MicroStrategy Incorporated is not utilizing all of its potential. The latest price agitation may contribute to short-term losses for retail investors. Learn More

Actual Historical Performance (%)

 One Day Return
-0.72
 Five Day Return
1.81
 Year To Date Return
-12.61
 Ten Year Return
717.5
 All Time Return
2.5 K
 Last Split Factor
10:1
 Dividend Date
2025-05-22
 Last Split Date
2024-08-08
Begin Period Cash Flow39.9 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-22.5 B

Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you had invested $ 16,208 in MicroStrategy Incorporated on December 13, 2025 and sold it today you would have lost $ 2,247 from holding MicroStrategy Incorporated or given up 13.86% of portfolio value over 90 days. MicroStrategy Incorporated does not currently generate positive expected returns and carries 5.8011% risk (volatility on return distribution) over a 90-day horizon. In different words, 52% of stocks are less volatile than MicroStrategy, and 99% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
This market-relative note looks at return potential and the amount of risk required to get it. It is intended to show how efficiently risk has translated into return over the selected horizon. Given the investment horizon of 90 days MicroStrategy Incorporated is expected to under-perform the market. In addition to that, the company is 7.32 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about -0.01 of its total potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly -0.08 per unit of volatility.

Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

Price forecasting for MicroStrategy Stock often builds on the principle of mean reversion, where prices tend to converge toward historical averages. While this pattern is broadly applicable across stocks, persistent mispricings in some instruments highlight the role of additional risk factors in pricing dynamics.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds moving above the current price in 90 days
139.70 90 days 139.70
about 72.72
Based on probability analysis of this stock, the likelihood of MicroStrategy Incorporated moving above the current price in 90 days from now is about 72.72 (This stock probability distribution maps the expected range of MicroStrategy Stock prices over 90 days).
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.98 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, MicroStrategy Incorporated will likely underperform. Additionally, MicroStrategy Incorporated has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   MicroStrategy Incorporated Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for MicroStrategy Incorporated

No single forecasting method can reliably predict the stock market, but the practice of applying multiple models to instruments like MicroStrategy Incorporated remains a core element of investment analysis. Comparing results helps investors build a more complete picture and prepare for a range of potential outcomes.
The degree to which MicroStrategy Incorporated's exhibits mean reversion depends on how efficiently the market prices new information. In highly covered equities, the mean reversion window tends to be shorter.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
131.00136.80142.60
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
123.63192.44198.24
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
123.28129.08134.88
Details
13 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
344.63378.71420.37
Details
Before investing in MicroStrategy Incorporated, assess how MicroStrategy Incorporated's compares to its competitive peer group. A company that appears undervalued in absolute terms may be fairly priced when measured against sector-relative benchmarks.

Primary Risk Indicators

Over the past 10-20 years, the stock market has seen violent swings that have tested investor resolve. MicroStrategy Incorporated has been part of this volatility. Those holding MicroStrategy Incorporated should consider a hedging strategy that accounts for MicroStrategy Incorporated's changing volatility and market elasticity to limit downside losses.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.1128
β
Beta against Dow Jones2.98
σ
Overall volatility
18.58
Ir
Information ratio -0.0364

Investor Alerts and Insights

Stocks like MicroStrategy Incorporated can experience rapid changes in technical and fundamental conditions. Setting up alerts for MicroStrategy Incorporated ensures investors receive timely notifications about significant developments that may affect their positions.
MicroStrategy Incorporated generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
MicroStrategy Incorporated has high historical volatility and very poor performance
MicroStrategy Incorporated currently holds $8.28 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 2.82, implying MicroStrategy Incorporated greatly relies on financing operations through borrowing. MicroStrategy Incorporated has a current ratio of 0.76, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about MicroStrategy Incorporated's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity.
The company reported previous year's revenue of 477.23 M. Net Loss for the year was -3.85 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 327.82 M.
MicroStrategy Incorporated currently holds about 60.39 M in cash with -67.24 M of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 5.34.
MicroStrategy Incorporated has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Roughly 63.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
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Price Density Drivers

Price density analysis for MicroStrategy Incorporated focuses on the forces that drive short-term price movements. The indicators below highlight key market dynamics including the balance between long and short positioning, volume patterns, and volatility trends.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding294 M
Cash And Short Term Investments2.3 B

MicroStrategy Incorporated Fundamentals Growth

MicroStrategy Incorporated's revenue trajectory, earnings quality, and financial leverage are the key fundamentals that drive MicroStrategy Stock market valuation. Investors who track these metrics gain a clearer view of the forces shaping MicroStrategy Stock price behavior.

Performance Metrics & Calculation Methodology

MicroStrategy Incorporated performance is measured on a risk-adjusted basis against benchmarks. Risk-return balance shapes allocation context across cycles. MicroStrategy Incorporated shows ROE of -11.11%, ROA of -7.78%.

Unless otherwise specified, data for MicroStrategy Incorporated is compiled from periodic company reporting and market reference feeds and standardized for comparability. Analyst inputs may be included when coverage is available. Updates may occur throughout the day. Return and risk statistics are calculated from historical price series.

This content is curated and reviewed by:

Raphi Shpitalnik - Junior Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board