Microsoft (Germany) Performance
| MSF Stock | EUR 351.15 1.70 0.49% |
The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.23, which alludes to relatively modest fluctuations relative to the market. Returns on Microsoft tend to trail the broader market in strong rallies but hold up better when sentiment turns negative. At this point, Microsoft has a negative expected return of -0.21%. Please make sure to double-check Microsoft's the relationship between the total risk alpha and potential upside, to decide if Microsoft's performance from the past will be repeated at some future date.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Weak
Weak | Strong |
Over the last 90 days, Microsoft generated negative risk-adjusted returns and added little value for investors with long positions. The result matters because weak risk-adjusted return can persist even when isolated price moves briefly look constructive. In spite of unsteady performance in the last few months, the stock's technical and fundamental indicators remain very healthy, which may send shares a bit higher in April 2026. The recent disarray may also be a sign of long period up-swing for the firm's investors. Learn More
| Begin Period Cash Flow | 18.3 B | |
| Free Cash Flow | 71.6 B |
Microsoft |
Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape
If you had invested € 40,233 in Microsoft on December 13, 2025 and sold it today you would have lost € 5,118 from holding Microsoft or given up 12.72% of portfolio value over 90 days. Microsoft is producing return of less than zero assuming 2.1835% volatility of returns over the 90 days investment horizon. Simply put, 19% of all stocks have less volatile historical return distribution than Microsoft, and 99% of all equity instruments are likely to generate higher returns than the company over the next 90 trading days. Expected Return |
| Risk |
Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price
Investors have long observed that Microsoft Stock price tends to fluctuate around a central value over time. This mean reversion pattern is a cornerstone of many forecasting models. However, periods of persistent mispricing in some stocks suggest that additional risk factors may account for the delayed correction.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds moving above the current price in 90 days |
| 351.15 | 90 days | 351.15 | about 75.22 |
A normal distribution analysis suggests that the odds of Microsoft moving above the current price in 90 days from now are about 75.22 (The distribution above shows where Microsoft Stock price is most likely to fall within the next 90 days based on historical volatility).
Microsoft Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Microsoft
Forecasting Microsoft involves applying various models to estimate future price behavior. While no method can consistently predict the stock market with certainty, the discipline of building and testing forecasts sharpens investment thinking. Combining several approaches and cross-checking results offers a more balanced view of potential outcomes.Mean reversion in Microsoft's price occurs when temporary dislocations - caused by sentiment extremes, news events, or liquidity shocks - correct back toward the stock's historical fair value.
Primary Risk Indicators
The stock market has gone through extended periods of turbulence over the past two decades. Microsoft has not been immune to these swings. Sudden corrections and sharp rallies have tested many portfolios. Investors can protect against downside risk in Microsoft by monitoring Microsoft's fundamental risk indicators and maintaining appropriate hedges.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.2162 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.23 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 30.79 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0827 |
Investor Alerts and Insights
Setting up alerts on Microsoft ensures that material changes in technical or fundamental conditions are not missed. These notifications for Microsoft help investors make timely decisions in response to significant stock events.| Microsoft generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Microsoft Fundamentals Growth
Microsoft's fundamentals serve as the primary lens through which investors evaluate Microsoft Stock. Metrics such as earnings growth, revenue consistency, margin trends, and balance sheet strength collectively determine market sentiment toward Microsoft Stock.
| Current Valuation | 2.57 T | |||
| Price To Book | 7.71 X | |||
| Price To Sales | 9.92 X | |||
| Revenue | 281.72 B | |||
| EBITDA | 100.24 B | |||
| Total Debt | 3 B | |||
| Cash Flow From Operations | 136.16 B | |||
| Total Asset | 619 B | |||
| Retained Earnings | 237.73 B | |||
Performance Metrics & Calculation Methodology
Microsoft performance is measured on a risk-adjusted basis against benchmarks. Drawdown profile frames downside sensitivity and recovery characteristics.
This section for Microsoft is built from periodic company reporting and market reference feeds, with harmonization applied to align reporting definitions. Values may update on different source schedules. Return and risk statistics are calculated from historical price series.