Microchip Technology Stock Performance

MCHP Stock  USD 64.34  1.37  2.18%   
The company has a Beta (Systematic Risk) of 1.39, which alludes to elevated sensitivity to broad market movements. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Microchip Technology will likely underperform. At this point, Microchip Technology has a negative expected return of -0.0156%.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Weak
 
Weak
 
Strong
During the last 90 trading days, Microchip Technology produced negative risk-adjusted performance, which signals weak return efficiency for investors with long positions. The result matters because weak risk-adjusted return can persist even when isolated price moves briefly look constructive. Even with relatively invariable technical indicators, Microchip Technology is not utilizing all of its potential. The recent price agitation may contribute to short-term losses for retail investors. Learn More

Actual Historical Performance (%)

 One Day Return
-0.51
 Five Day Return
-1.61
 Year To Date Return
-3.17
 Ten Year Return
162.59
 All Time Return
19.2 K
 Forward Dividend Yield
0.0289
 Payout Ratio
0.0156
 Last Split Factor
2:1
 Forward Dividend Rate
1.82
 Dividend Date
2026-03-10
Begin Period Cash Flow319.7 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-287.8 M

Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you had invested $ 6,497 in Microchip Technology on December 23, 2025 and sold it today you would have lost $ 194.00 from holding Microchip Technology or given up 2.99% of portfolio value over 90 days. Microchip Technology does not currently generate positive expected returns and carries 2.6368% risk (volatility on return distribution) over a 90-day horizon. In different words, 23% of stocks are less volatile than Microchip, and 99% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
This comparison focuses on expected return, realized volatility, and risk efficiency versus the market. It keeps the emphasis on benchmark context, not just standalone performance. Given the investment horizon of 90 days Microchip Technology is expected to generate 3.2 times more return on investment than the market. However, the company is 3.2 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about -0.01 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly -0.12 per unit of risk.

Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The mean-reverting behavior of Microchip Stock price is a cornerstone of quantitative forecasting models. Studies have found that some stocks are persistently mispriced, with spreads correcting only when dynamics shift. Embedded risk premiums affect the speed at which mispriced stocks converge to their fair values.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds moving above the current price in 90 days
64.34 90 days 64.34
about 88.69
Probability analysis for this stock suggests that the odds of Microchip Technology moving above the current price in 90 days from now are about 88.69 . The probability reflects standard statistical modeling applied to this stock's price history. Investors should treat this probability as one input within a broader analytical framework. (This density function estimates how Microchip Stock price is distributed across a range of outcomes over 90 days). This distribution is derived from Microchip Stock's historical price data and statistical volatility measures. Use the shape of this distribution to calibrate position sizing and risk management for Microchip Stock.
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.39 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Microchip Technology will likely underperform. Additionally, Microchip Technology has an alpha of 0.0699, implying that it can generate a 0.0699 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherent market risk (beta).
   Microchip Technology Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Microchip Technology

The challenge of forecasting Microchip Technology mirrors the broader difficulty of predicting stock market movements. While perfect accuracy is unattainable, applying multiple models remains a core part of sound stock analysis. Market surprises are inevitable, but disciplined forecasting still improves overall investment decision-making.
The mean reversion effect in Microchip Technology is stronger when the initial deviation was driven by sentiment rather than fundamentals. Such deviations have sometimes corrected when the initial catalyst fades, though timing remains uncertain. The degree to which Microchip Technology's exhibits mean reversion depends on how efficiently the market prices new information.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
60.4063.0465.68
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
56.7376.8779.51
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
63.1365.7768.40
Details
Analyst
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
78.8786.6796.20
Details
To derive maximum value from Microchip Technology analysis, compare Microchip Technology's metrics against peers. Comparing Microchip Technology's margins, returns, and growth against averages reveals hidden strengths and weaknesses. Benchmarking Microchip Technology's on earnings quality and balance sheet strength can change the conclusion.

Primary Risk Indicators

Over recent decades, the stock market has seen multiple large corrections and recoveries affecting Microchip Technology. Both sharp declines and powerful rallies have tested investor discipline in Microchip Technology. Tracking Microchip Technology's volatility and fundamental risk indicators provides a framework for managing downside exposure.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.07
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.39
σ
Overall volatility
5.71
Ir
Information ratio 0.01

Investor Alerts and Insights

Investors who use alerts for Microchip Technology can respond more quickly to important stock events. Checking Microchip Technology notifications regularly is a straightforward way to stay on top of actionable developments. Combining Microchip Technology alerts with broader market context improves the quality of investment decisions.
Microchip Technology generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The company reported previous year's revenue of 4.4 B. Net Loss for the year was -500 K with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.42 B.
Microchip Technology has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 100.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 10th of March 2026 Microchip Technology paid $ 0.455 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from simplywall.st: Mythics Neuromorphic Design Win Might Change The Case For Investing In Microchip Technology

Price Density Drivers

For investors analyzing Microchip Technology, understanding buyer and seller positioning dynamics is essential for price analysis. Monitoring these dynamics helps anticipate short-term price movements and gauge current market conditions. Assessing Microchip Technology's price density drivers provides insight into whether recent moves are fundamental or tactical.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding537.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments771.7 M

Microchip Technology Fundamentals Growth

The market value of Microchip Stock depends on how investors perceive Microchip Technology's financial strength. Earnings growth, revenue momentum, profitability ratios, and debt levels drive Microchip Stock valuation. The financial health of Microchip Technology is the primary driver of Microchip Stock market performance over time.

Performance Metrics & Calculation Methodology

Microchip Technology performance is measured on a risk-adjusted basis against benchmarks. Return persistence supports interpretability across rolling windows. Microchip Technology shows ROE of -1.09%, ROA of 1.16%.

Reported values for Microchip Technology are derived from periodic company reporting and market reference feeds and then standardized by Macroaxis analytics. Professional analyst research is incorporated when coverage is available. Refresh times depend on source availability. Return and risk statistics are calculated from historical price series.

This content is curated and reviewed by:

Raphi Shpitalnik - Junior Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board
Last reviewed on March 18th, 2026