First Trustconfluence Small Fund Manager Performance Evaluation

FOVCX Fund  USD 17.94  0.00  0.00%   
The fund owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of -0.29, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning First Trust/confluence are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, First Trust/confluence is likely to outperform the market.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Mild
 
Weak
 
Strong
Compared with the broader market, risk-adjusted returns on First Trustconfluence Small rank lower than 3% of all funds and fund portfolios over the last 90 days. This score becomes more useful when investors compare it with downside risk, Sharpe Ratio, and current trend stability. Despite somewhat strong fundamental indicators, First Trust/confluence is not utilizing all of its potentials. The current stock price disturbance, may contribute to short-term losses for the investors.
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First Trust/confluence Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest 1,756 in First Trustconfluence Small on December 10, 2025 and sell it today you would earn a total of 38.00 from holding First Trustconfluence Small or generate 2.16% return on investment over 90 days. First Trustconfluence Small is currently producing 0.0481% returns and takes up 1.0438% volatility of returns over 90 trading days. Put another way, 9% of traded mutual funds are less volatile than First, and 99% of all traded equity instruments are likely to generate higher returns over the next 90 trading days.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
This relative risk-return summary reviews how the instrument behaves against its benchmark. It works best as a comparative read on return quality, drawdown exposure, and volatility burden. Assuming the 90 days horizon First Trust/confluence is expected to generate 1.32 times more return on investment than the market. However, the company is 1.32 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about 0.05 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly -0.01 per unit of risk.

First Trust/confluence Current Valuation

Overvalued
Today
17.94
Please note that First Trust/confluence's price fluctuation is Very Low at this time. At this time, First Trust/confluence appears to be overvalued. First Trust/confluence has a latest Real Value of $16.44 per share. The latest price of the fund is $17.94. We determine the value of First Trust/confluence from evaluating fund fundamentals and technical indicators as well as its Probability Of Bankruptcy. In general, we recommend taking in undervalued mutual funds and trading overvalued mutual funds since, in the future, mutual fund prices and their ongoing real values will draw towards each other.
Since First Trust/confluence is currently traded on the exchange, buyers and sellers on that exchange determine the market value of First Mutual Fund. However, First Trust/confluence's intrinsic value may or may not be the same as its current market price, in which case there is an opportunity to profit from the mispricing, assuming the market price will eventually merge with its intrinsic value.
Historical Market  17.94 Real  16.44 Hype  17.94 Naive  18.2
The intrinsic value of First Trust/confluence's stock can be calculated using various methods such as discounted cash flow analysis, price-to-earnings ratio, or price-to-book ratio. That value may differ from its current market price, which is determined by supply and demand factors such as.
16.44
Real Value
19.73
Upside
Understanding the potential upside and downside for First Trustconfluence Small is essential before adding it to a portfolio. The fair value of First mutual fund is influenced by both quantitative metrics and market sentiment.
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
17.4017.8618.33
Details
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
16.9017.9418.98
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
17.1618.2019.25
Details
Below is the normalized historical share price chart for First Trustconfluence Small extending back to March 08, 2011. This chart has been adjusted for all splits and dividends and is plotted against all major global economic recessions. As of today, the current price of First Trust/confluence stands at 17.94, as last reported on the 10th of March, with the highest price reaching 17.94 and the lowest price hitting 17.94 during the day.
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
 
Interest Hikes

First Trust/confluence Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of First Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
17.94 90 days 17.94
about 21.98
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of First Trust/confluence to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 21.98 (This First Trustconfluence Small probability density function shows the probability of First Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon First Trustconfluence Small has a beta of -0.29. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding First Trust/confluence are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, First Trustconfluence Small is likely to outperform the market. Additionally First Trustconfluence Small has an alpha of 0.0885, implying that it can generate a 0.0885 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   First Trust/confluence Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for First Trust/confluence

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Trust/confluence. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
The concept of mean reversion suggests that First Trust/confluence's price will eventually return toward its long-run average. High prices may deter value investors, while unusually low prices often attract buyers who anticipate a recovery.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
16.9017.9418.98
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
15.4016.4419.73
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
17.1618.2019.25
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
17.4017.8618.33
Details
Competitive analysis for First Trust/confluence compares its financial performance, valuation multiples, and growth trajectory against sector peers. This peer-relative view often uncovers mispricing that single-company analysis would miss.

First Trust/confluence Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. First Trust/confluence is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the First Trust/confluence's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold First Trustconfluence Small, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of First Trust/confluence within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.09
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.29
σ
Overall volatility
0.44
Ir
Information ratio 0.08

First Trust/confluence Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of First Trust/confluence for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for First Trust/confluence can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
First Trust/confluence is not yet fully synchronised with the market data
First Trust/confluence generated five year return of -2.0%
This fund retains 98.73% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities

First Trust/confluence Fundamentals Growth

First Mutual Fund prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of First Trust/confluence, and First Trust/confluence fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on First Mutual Fund performance.

First Trust/confluence Performance and Risk-Adjusted Returns

First Trust/confluence performance is typically evaluated through NAV-based returns relative to category peers and stated objectives. Relative performance helps interpret behavior versus benchmarks or category peers. Allocation modeling is used to understand how First Trust/confluence fits within diversified holdings.

Methodology

Unless otherwise specified, data for First Trustconfluence Small is derived from fund disclosures (prospectus language, holdings reports, and periodic statements where available). Asset-level metrics are computed daily by Macroaxis LLC and refreshed regularly based on instrument type. First (USA Stocks:FOVCX) market data and reported NAV may reflect delayed updates. Data may be delayed depending on reporting sources and market conventions Return metrics, performance scores, and risk-adjusted figures shown here are computed from historical price series.

Assumptions

Information for First Trustconfluence Small is compiled from public fund disclosures, holdings reports, and market data feeds and official sources including U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) via EDGAR. Reporting latency may occur in some cases. All analytics are generated using standardized, rules-based models designed to promote consistency and comparability across instruments. Model assumptions, reference parameters, and selected computational inputs are available in the Model Inputs section. If you have questions about our data sources or methodology, please contact Macroaxis Support.

Research Sources

First Trustconfluence Small may have reference inputs that incorporate holdings disclosures, category classification, and NAV-derived statistics where available. Updates may occur throughout the day.

Things to note about First Trust/confluence performance evaluation

Automated alerts tied to First Trustconfluence Small help investors surface material conditions that may support or challenge the current thesis before they become expensive mistakes. In practice, the value comes from seeing which signals are new, which are persistent, and which are strong enough to justify action.
First Trust/confluence is not yet fully synchronised with the market data
First Trust/confluence generated five year return of -2.0%
This fund retains 98.73% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities
Evaluating First Trust/confluence's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate First Trust/confluence's mutual fund performance include:
  • Analyzing First Trust/confluence's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether First Trust/confluence's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining First Trust/confluence's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating First Trust/confluence's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of First Trust/confluence's management team can help you assess the Mutual Fund's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of First Trust/confluence's mutual fund. These opinions can provide insight into First Trust/confluence's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating First Trust/confluence's mutual fund performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact First Trust/confluence's mutual fund market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

Additional Resources for First Mutual Fund Analysis

Other Information on Investing in First Mutual Fund

First Trust/confluence financial ratios help frame valuation context across profits, cash flow, and enterprise value. They help compare First across valuation measures.
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