Fossil Group Stock Performance
| FOSL Stock | USD 4.77 -0.03 -0.63% |
On a scale of 0 to 100, Fossil holds a performance score of 7. The firm maintains a market beta of 0.36, which implies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. Returns on Fossil tend to trail the broader market in strong rallies but hold up better when sentiment turns negative. Please verify Fossil's relationship between the skewness and day median price, to make a quick decision on whether Fossil's current trending patterns will revert.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Moderate
Weak | Strong |
Compared with the broader market, risk-adjusted returns on Fossil Group rank lower than 7% of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. This score becomes more useful when investors compare it with downside risk, Sharpe Ratio, and current trend stability. Despite quite conflicting basic indicators, Fossil disclosed solid returns over the last few months and may actually be approaching a breakup point. Learn More
Actual Historical Performance (%)
One Day Return -0.62 | Five Day Return 20.45 | Year To Date Return 24.87 | Ten Year Return -90.38 | All Time Return 192.7 |
Last Split Factor 3:2 | Last Split Date 2004-04-12 |
1 | Acquisition by Schoppert Wendy Lee of 30577 shares of Fossil subject to Rule 16b-3 | 12/19/2025 |
2 | Fossil Discovery of New Human Ancestor May Connect Us to Neandertals and Denisovans | 01/07/2026 |
3 | The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights Johnson Johnson, Caterpillar, Qualcomm, Fossil and Jones Soda | 01/09/2026 |
4 | Acquisition by Randy Greben of 105000 shares of Fossil subject to Rule 16b-3 | 02/02/2026 |
5 | Owning 45 percent shares,institutional owners seem interested in Fossil Group, Inc. , | 02/11/2026 |
6 | How The Childrens Place embraces modern parenting with new brand platform | 02/26/2026 |
7 | Disposition of 28001 shares by Randy Greben of Fossil subject to Rule 16b-3 | 03/05/2026 |
8 | Examining the Future Fossil Groups Earnings Outlook | 03/10/2026 |
9 | Fossil Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript | 03/11/2026 |
| Begin Period Cash Flow | 126.6 M | |
| Total Cashflows From Investing Activities | 22.1 M | |
| Free Cash Flow | -60.5 M |
Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape
If you had invested $ 381.00 in Fossil Group on December 14, 2025 and sold it today you would have earned a total of $ 96.00 from holding Fossil Group or generated 25.2% return on investment over 90 days. Fossil Group is currently generating a 0.4817% daily expected return and carries 4.8375% risk (volatility on return distribution) over a 90-day horizon. In different words, 43% of stocks are less volatile than Fossil, and 91% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon. Expected Return |
| Risk |
Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price
For Fossil Stock, the observed tendency of price to return to a central value is a key input to forecasting models. This mean reversion pattern, however, does not apply uniformly — some stocks remain mispriced for extended periods, suggesting that embedded risk premiums affect the speed of correction.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds moving above the current price in 90 days |
| 4.77 | 90 days | 4.77 | about 1.56 |
According to a normal distribution model, the odds of Fossil moving above the current price in 90 days from now are about 1.56 (The density curve for Fossil Group shows where Fossil Stock price is most likely to settle within 90 days).
Fossil Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Fossil
A wide range of forecasting techniques can be applied to Fossil Group and the broader stock market. While market prediction remains inherently uncertain, combining multiple approaches and evaluating their results is one of the most effective ways to improve the quality of investment decisions.Mean reversion in Fossil is more reliable over longer time horizons. Short-term deviations can persist and even widen before correcting, making position sizing and risk management critical.
Primary Risk Indicators
The stock market's recent history has been defined by volatility, with multiple large corrections and rallies in the last 10-20 years. Fossil has participated in these swings. Investors holding Fossil Group can protect their portfolios by monitoring Fossil's risk indicators and implementing appropriate hedging strategies.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.48 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.36 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.39 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.11 |
Investor Alerts and Insights
Investors in Fossil benefit from automated alerts that flag material stock changes as they occur. Fossil Group notifications cover technical signals, fundamental shifts, and notable headlines that may impact investment timing.| Fossil Group had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported previous year's revenue of 1 B. Net Loss for the year was -77.84 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 604.08 M. | |
| Fossil Group currently holds about 162.61 M in cash with -57.9 M of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.14. | |
| Fossil Group has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Short Interest in PLBY Group, Inc. Rises By 40.5 |
Price Density Drivers
Key market indicators for Fossil reflect the tension between long and short positioning, along with broader investor sentiment. Reviewing the table below helps investors assess the current dynamics driving Fossil's price behavior.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 54.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 95.8 M |
Fossil Fundamentals Growth
The market prices Fossil Stock according to Fossil's ability to generate revenue growth, maintain healthy margins, and manage debt effectively. These fundamental drivers have a direct and measurable impact on Fossil Stock performance.
| Return On Equity | -0.39 | |||
| Return On Asset | 0.0221 | |||
| Profit Margin | -0.05 % | |||
| Operating Margin | 0.07 % | |||
| Current Valuation | 509.34 M | |||
| Shares Outstanding | 53.79 M | |||
| Price To Earning | 21.04 X | |||
| Price To Book | 2.38 X | |||
| Price To Sales | 0.27 X | |||
| Revenue | 1 B | |||
| Gross Profit | 604.08 M | |||
| EBITDA | -19.1 M | |||
| Net Income | -77.84 M | |||
| Cash And Equivalents | 162.61 M | |||
| Cash Per Share | 3.14 X | |||
| Total Debt | 282.2 M | |||
| Debt To Equity | 1.27 % | |||
| Current Ratio | 2.37 X | |||
| Book Value Per Share | 2.79 X | |||
| Cash Flow From Operations | -57.9 M | |||
| Earnings Per Share | -1.11 X | |||
| Market Capitalization | 112.95 M | |||
| Total Asset | 689.3 M | |||
| Retained Earnings | -162.57 M | |||
| Working Capital | 227.94 M | |||
| Current Asset | 269.52 M | |||
| Current Liabilities | 106.24 M | |||
Performance Metrics & Calculation Methodology
Fossil performance is measured on a risk-adjusted basis against benchmarks. Liquidity conditions can influence realized performance through spreads and execution cost. Fossil shows ROE of -39.3%, ROA of 2.21%.
The analytics block for Fossil Group relies on periodic company reporting and market reference feeds, with quality checks and normalization applied before rendering. Analyst inputs may be included when coverage is available. Timing can vary by data vendor. Return and risk statistics are calculated from historical price series.