FedEx Stock Performance

FDX Stock  USD 358.85  2.74  0.77%   
On a scale of 0 to 100, FedEx holds a performance score of 17. The company owns a beta of 1.01, which implies elevated sensitivity to broad market movements. With a beta near 1, FedEx is expected to mirror market movements with minimal deviation in either direction.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Constructive
 
Weak
 
Strong
FedEx currently ranks below 17% of comparable global equities and portfolios when recent risk-adjusted returns are measured across a 90-day horizon. Current market capitalization is about 84.67 Billion. Despite somewhat weak fundamental indicators, FedEx sustained solid returns over the last few months and may actually be approaching a breakup point. Learn More

Actual Historical Performance (%)

 One Day Return
0.77
 Five Day Return
1.18
 Year To Date Return
22.42
 Ten Year Return
120.65
 All Time Return
37.5 K
 Forward Dividend Yield
0.0162
 Payout Ratio
0.2293
 Last Split Factor
2:1
 Forward Dividend Rate
5.8
 Dividend Date
2026-04-01
Begin Period Cash Flow6.5 B
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-4.1 B

Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you had invested $ 29,402 in FedEx on December 23, 2025 and sold it today you would have earned a total of $ 6,483 from holding FedEx or generated 22.05% return on investment over 90 days. FedEx is generating a 0.3394% daily return assuming volatility of 1.5817% on return distribution over 90 days investment horizon. In other words, 14% of stocks are less volatile than FedEx, and above 94% of all equities are expected to generate higher returns over the next 90 days.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
This relative risk-return summary reviews how the instrument behaves against its benchmark. It works best as a comparative read on return quality, drawdown exposure, and volatility burden. Considering the 90-day investment horizon FedEx is expected to generate 1.92 times more return on investment than the market. However, the company is 1.92 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about 0.21 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly -0.12 per unit of risk.

Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The concept of mean reversion, where FedEx Stock price gravitates toward equilibrium, is fundamental to market analysis. This pattern is a cornerstone of many forecasting models, though periods of persistent mispricing occur. Investors demand compensation for the additional risk inherent in stocks that remain mispriced longer. The concept of price convergence is essential context for any investor forecasting FedEx Stock price direction.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds moving above the current price in 90 days
358.85 90 days 358.85
about 25.36
Statistical modeling indicates that the probability of FedEx moving above the current price in 90 days from now is about 25.36 . The model uses historical price data to estimate the range of likely outcomes for this stock. The estimate assumes relatively stable market conditions and may not account for tail risk events. The statistical approach provides context that complements fundamental and technical analysis. (This stock probability density function maps the likelihood of FedEx Stock reaching different price levels over 90 days). Taller, narrower curves suggest lower volatility and more concentrated price expectations for FedEx Stock. Review this distribution alongside FedEx Stock's implied volatility for additional context. Review this distribution before making position sizing or risk management decisions around FedEx Stock.
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.01 . This usually indicates FedEx market returns are sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, FedEx is expected to follow. Additionally, FedEx has an alpha of 0.4771, implying that it can generate a 0.4771 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherent market risk (beta).
   FedEx Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for FedEx

Accurately predicting the stock market is one of the most challenging tasks for investors analyzing FedEx. No single approach dominates, but the practice of forecasting remains an essential element of the investment process. Investors benefit from applying a variety of techniques rather than relying on a single model for FedEx. The practice of comparing forecasts for FedEx builds analytical resilience regardless of which model proves most accurate.
Experienced investors tracking FedEx's watch for mean reversion setups where price has deviated from its long-run average. Sentiment extremes, news events, or liquidity shocks are common catalysts for these temporary dislocations in FedEx. Prices periodically overshoot their intrinsic value in both directions, creating mean reversion opportunities in FedEx. The mean reversion signal is most useful when combined with fundamental confirmation for FedEx's.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
357.28358.85360.42
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
297.77299.34394.74
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
369.32370.89372.46
Details
Analyst
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
364.26400.29444.32
Details
Peer comparison enriches FedEx analysis by revealing how the company ranks against competitors. FedEx's multiples must be compared to direct competitors to determine genuine value. Superior peer-relative performance is one of the strongest justifications for FedEx's valuation premium. Cross-company comparison is essential to validate or challenge any investment thesis on FedEx.

Primary Risk Indicators

Volatility has been a defining feature of the stock market in recent decades, and FedEx has reflected that pattern. Sudden corrections and sharp rallies have tested many portfolios that include FedEx. A risk management approach built around FedEx's volatility metrics can help investors manage downside exposure. Tracking FedEx's risk indicators over time reveals how the risk profile evolves across market cycles.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.48
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.01
σ
Overall volatility
35.96
Ir
Information ratio 0.31

Investor Alerts and Insights

For investors following FedEx, automated alerts provide early signals of meaningful shifts in stock dynamics. FedEx notifications highlight material changes that could affect portfolio decisions and overall risk exposure. Investors can customize FedEx alert parameters to match their risk tolerance and investment horizon. Pairing alerts with independent analysis strengthens conviction in FedEx investment decisions.
Over 80.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from benzinga.com: Fed Ex Delivers Biggest Profitable US Share Gains In Two Decades

Price Density Drivers

For FedEx, price shifts are largely a function of buyer and seller positioning dynamics and broader market conditions. Key market indicators for FedEx Stock are presented below to contextualize recent price movements. Tracking FedEx's market indicators provides context for distinguishing fundamental shifts from short-term noise. This data helps frame whether current FedEx's price movements warrant further investigation.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding243 M
Cash And Short Term Investments5.6 B

FedEx Fundamentals Growth

The pricing of FedEx Stock is heavily influenced by FedEx's fundamental performance over time. Investors monitor revenue growth, profit margins, cash flow generation, and debt management as key indicators. The performance of FedEx Stock is closely linked to FedEx's underlying financial metrics and growth rates. Profitability trends, cash flow generation, and capital structure remain the key fundamentals for FedEx Stock.

Performance Metrics & Calculation Methodology

FedEx performance is measured on a risk-adjusted basis against benchmarks. Relative performance helps interpret behavior versus benchmarks or category peers. FedEx shows ROE of 15.87%, ROA of 5.03%.

For FedEx, this section uses periodic company reporting and market reference feeds with Macroaxis normalization rules applied to keep cross-asset comparisons consistent. Professional analyst research is incorporated when coverage is available. Intraday timing differences may exist. Return and risk statistics are calculated from historical price series.

This content is curated and reviewed by:

Rifka Kats - Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board
Last reviewed on February 28th, 2026