First Trust Short Fund Manager Performance Evaluation

FDHCX Fund  USD 17.73  -0.06  -0.34%   
The fund owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of 0.0434, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, FIRST TRUST's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during a bear market, the loss from holding FIRST TRUST is expected to be smaller as well.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Weak
 
Weak
 
Strong
Over the last 90 days, First Trust Short generated negative risk-adjusted returns and added little value for fund investors. The result matters because weak risk-adjusted return can persist even when isolated price moves briefly look constructive. Despite somewhat strong fundamental indicators, FIRST TRUST is not utilizing all of its potential. The current price disturbance may contribute to short-term losses for investors. Learn More
  

FIRST TRUST Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you had invested $ 1,786 in First Trust Short on December 11, 2025 and sold it today you would have lost $-13.00 from holding First Trust Short or given up 0.73% of portfolio value over 90 days. First Trust Short is currently producing negative expected returns and carries 0.1314% volatility of returns over 90 trading days. Put another way, 1% of traded mutual funds are less volatile than FIRST, and 99% of all traded equity instruments are likely to generate higher returns over the next 90 trading days.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
This relative risk-return summary reviews how the instrument behaves against its benchmark. It works best as a comparative read on return quality, drawdown exposure, and volatility burden. Assuming a 90-day horizon FIRST TRUST is expected to generate 0.17 times more return on investment than the market. However, the fund is 5.88 times less risky than the market. It trades about -0.09 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly -0.04 per unit of risk.

Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

A fundamental principle of fund forecasting is that prices tend to revert toward historical averages. For FIRST Mutual Fund, this mean-reverting tendency has been a useful tool for valuation. Still, some funds exhibit persistent mispricings that are only corrected when buying and selling pressure realign.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds moving above the current price in 90 days
17.73 90 days 17.73
about 97.0
According to our probability model, the chance of FIRST TRUST moving above the current price in 90 days from now is about 97.0 (This probability chart for First Trust Short depicts the range of likely prices for FIRST Mutual Fund over a 90-day horizon).
Assuming a 90-day horizon FIRST TRUST has a beta of 0.0434. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, FIRST TRUST's average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during a bear market, the loss from holding First Trust Short is expected to be smaller as well. Additionally, First Trust Short has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The fund is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   FIRST TRUST Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for FIRST TRUST

Predicting the direction of First Trust Short and the broader fund market involves a range of quantitative and qualitative techniques. Although accurate forecasting remains elusive, the process of modeling future scenarios is a valuable part of investment decision-making. Comparing results from different methods helps investors gauge the confidence level of their predictions.
The concept of mean reversion suggests that FIRST TRUST's price will eventually return toward its long-run average. High prices may deter value investors, while unusually low prices often attract buyers who anticipate a recovery.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
17.6017.7317.86
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
17.6317.7617.89
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
17.5717.7117.84
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
17.7117.8017.89
Details
Competitive analysis for FIRST TRUST compares its financial performance, valuation multiples, and growth trajectory against sector peers. This peer-relative view often uncovers mispricing that single-company analysis would miss.

FIRST TRUST Risk Indicators

Market volatility over the last 10-20 years has created both risk and opportunity for mutual fund investors. FIRST TRUST has seen its share of dramatic price swings during this period. Implementing a hedging strategy and tracking FIRST TRUST's volatility and elasticity can help investors in First Trust Short limit the impact of adverse market moves.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.0215
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.04
σ
Overall volatility
0.08
Ir
Information ratio -0.0717

FIRST TRUST Alerts and Suggestions

Real-time alerts for FIRST TRUST allow investors to track important fund developments as they happen. Reviewing ongoing notifications for First Trust Short helps identify opportunities and risks before they are fully priced into the market.
First Trust Short generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The fund retains about 96.57% of its assets under management (AUM) in fixed income securities

FIRST TRUST Fundamentals Growth

FIRST Mutual Fund prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of FIRST TRUST, and FIRST TRUST fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on FIRST Mutual Fund performance.

About FIRST TRUST Performance Analysis

FIRST TRUST performance is typically evaluated through NAV-based returns relative to category peers and stated objectives. Relative performance helps interpret behavior versus benchmarks or category peers.

Unless otherwise specified, financial data for First Trust Short is derived from periodic company reporting (annual and quarterly where available). Asset-level metrics are computed daily by Macroaxis LLC and refreshed regularly based on asset type. Updates may occur throughout the day.