First Trust California Etf Performance

FCAL Etf  USD 49.69  -0.02  -0.04%   
The etf has a beta of 0.0059, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, First Trust's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding First Trust is expected to be smaller as well.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Constructive
 
Weak
 
Strong
Compared with the broader market, risk-adjusted returns on First Trust California rank lower than 18% of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. This score becomes more useful when investors compare it with downside risk, Sharpe Ratio, and current trend stability. Despite quite persistent basic indicators, First Trust is not utilizing all of its potentials. The latest stock price mess, may contribute to short-term losses for the institutional investors. ...more

First Trust Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest 4,877 in First Trust California on December 9, 2025 and sell it today you would earn a total of 92.00 from holding First Trust California or generate 1.89% return on investment over 90 days. First Trust California is currently generating 0.0307% in daily expected returns and assumes 0.1285% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. In different words, 1% of etfs are less volatile than First, and 99% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
This relative risk-return summary reviews how the instrument behaves against its benchmark. It highlights whether the current reward profile compensates for the level of uncertainty assumed. Given the investment horizon of 90 days First Trust is expected to generate 0.16 times more return on investment than the market. However, the company is 6.19 times less risky than the market. It trades about 0.24 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.0 per unit of risk.

First Trust Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of First Etf price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
49.69 90 days 49.69
about 19.99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of First Trust to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 19.99 (This First Trust California probability density function shows the probability of First Etf to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days First Trust has a beta of 0.0059. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, First Trust average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding First Trust California will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally First Trust California has an alpha of 0.0207, implying that it can generate a 0.0207 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   First Trust Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for First Trust

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Trust California. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Trust's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
49.5649.6949.82
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
49.4949.6249.75
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
49.2949.4249.55
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
49.4449.7750.11
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as First Trust. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against First Trust's peers to derive any actionable benefits.

First Trust Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. First Trust is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the First Trust's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold First Trust California, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of First Trust within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.02
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.01
σ
Overall volatility
0.38
Ir
Information ratio 0.16

First Trust Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of First Trust for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for First Trust California can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 20.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
The fund retains most of the assets under management (AUM) in different types of exotic instruments.

First Trust Fundamentals Growth

First Etf prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of First Trust, and First Trust fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on First Etf performance.

First Trust Return Metrics and Benchmarks

First Trust performance is typically evaluated relative to its benchmark and tracking difference over time. Risk-adjusted measures provide context for return efficiency across regimes. Allocation modeling is used to understand how First Trust fits within diversified holdings.

Methodology

Unless otherwise specified, data for First Trust California is derived from fund disclosures (prospectus language, holdings reports, and periodic statements where available). Asset-level metrics are computed daily by Macroaxis LLC and refreshed regularly based on instrument type. First (USA Stocks:FCAL) market data and reported NAV may reflect delayed updates. Data may be delayed depending on reporting sources and market conventions Return metrics, performance scores, and risk-adjusted figures shown here are computed from historical price series. Premium/discount dynamics for First Trust California can be shaped by underlying holdings liquidity, rebalancing schedules, and market-wide risk appetite.

Assumptions

The data underlying this report is sourced from public fund disclosures, holdings reports, and market data feeds, including filings and releases published by U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) via EDGAR. Some updates may be delayed based on publication cadence. All analytics are generated using standardized, rules-based models designed to promote consistency and comparability across instruments. Model assumptions, reference parameters, and selected computational inputs are available in the Model Inputs section. If you have questions about our data sources or methodology, please contact Macroaxis Support.

Research Sources

First Trust California may have reference inputs that incorporate holdings disclosures, category classification, and NAV-derived statistics where available. Updates may occur throughout the day.

About 20.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
The fund retains most of the assets under management (AUM) in different types of exotic instruments.

More Resources for First Etf Analysis

A structured review of First Trust California often starts with core financial statements and trend context. Key ratios help frame profitability, efficiency, and growth context for First Trust California Etf. Outlined below are key reports that provide context for First Trust California Etf:
Use Investing Opportunities to better understand diversified portfolio construction. Such insight adds context to allocation decisions within a diversified portfolio. This includes a position in First Trust California within the portfolio mix. Also, note that the market value of any etf could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in nation.
Analysis related to First Trust should be read together with other portfolio and risk tools before capital is reallocated. That is especially important when the goal is to improve the overall mix of instruments already held. You can also try the Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..
The market value of First Trust California is measured differently than book value, which reflects First accounting equity. Intrinsic value represents an estimate of underlying worth and can differ from both market price and book value. Market price can move with sentiment, cycles, and liquidity conditions, so it may drift away from fundamentals. Valuation methods compare these perspectives to frame context.
Note that First Trust's intrinsic value and market price are different measures derived from different inputs. Analysis often considers earnings, revenue quality, fundamentals, technical signals, competition, and analyst coverage. By contrast, market price reflects the level where buyers and sellers transact.