BancFirst Stock Performance
| BANF Stock | USD 105.94 -1.31 -1.22% |
The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 1.31, which conveys a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. With a beta above 1, BancFirst typically delivers outsized gains in rising markets at the cost of steeper drawdowns. At this point, BancFirst has a negative expected return of -0.0187%. Please make sure to double-check BancFirst's the relationship between the maximum drawdown and skewness, to decide if BancFirst's performance from the past will be repeated at some future date.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Weak
Weak | Strong |
For the recent 90-day horizon, BancFirst failed to convert risk into positive risk-adjusted performance. The result matters because weak risk-adjusted return can persist even when isolated price moves briefly look constructive. Despite nearly stable basic indicators, BancFirst is not utilizing all of its potential. The current price disturbance may contribute to mid-run losses for stockholders. Learn More
Actual Historical Performance (%)
One Day Return 1.12 | Five Day Return -0.35 | Year To Date Return 0.73 | Ten Year Return 274.48 | All Time Return 5.9 K |
Forward Dividend Yield 0.0183 | Payout Ratio | Last Split Factor 2:1 | Forward Dividend Rate 1.96 | Dividend Date 2026-04-15 |
1 | Insider Trading | 12/17/2025 |
| BancFirst dividend paid on 15th of January 2026 | 01/15/2026 |
2 | Banc First Q 4 Earnings Snapshot | 01/22/2026 |
3 | Disposition of 269223 shares by Bf Bank Partners Lp of Banc First subject to Rule 16 b-3 | 01/30/2026 |
4 | Assessing Banc First Valuation After Q 4 Earnings Show Higher Net Income And Rising Net Charge Offs | 02/03/2026 |
5 | Banc First Is Up 7.9 percent After EPS Rises Despite Higher Loan Charge-offs Has The Bull Case Changed | 02/05/2026 |
6 | Foraker, Banc First EVP, sells 359,734 in BANF stock - Investing.com | 02/11/2026 |
7 | Denali Advisors LLC Decreases Position in Banc First Corporation BANF - Market Beat | 02/17/2026 |
8 | Disposition of 85006 shares by Mccasland Thomas Howard Iii of Banc First subject to Rule 16 b-3 | 02/26/2026 |
9 | Assessing Banc First Valuation After Mixed Share Performance And Conflicting PE And DCF Signals | 03/02/2026 |
10 | 3 Reasons BANF is Risky and 1 Stock to Buy Instead | 03/06/2026 |
11 | Banc Firsts Neutral Rating Reiterated at DA Davidson - Market Beat | 03/09/2026 |
12 | Banc First Gains Institutional Interest In Nasdaq Composite | 03/16/2026 |
| Begin Period Cash Flow | 3.6 B | |
| Total Cashflows From Investing Activities | 15 M |
BancFirst | Build portfolio with BancFirst Stock |
Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape
If you had invested $ 11,122 in BancFirst on December 17, 2025 and sold it today you would have lost $ 255.00 from holding BancFirst or given up 2.29% of portfolio value over 90 days. BancFirst does not currently generate positive expected returns and carries 1.9676% risk (volatility on return distribution) over a 90-day horizon. In different words, 17% of stocks are less volatile than BancFirst, and 99% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon. Expected Return |
| Risk |
Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price
For forecasting purposes, the tendency of BancFirst Stock price to revert toward a long-term mean offers a useful anchor. However, investors should note that not all stocks correct quickly - persistent mispricings are often associated with additional risk factors that the market prices gradually.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds moving above the current price in 90 days |
| 105.94 | 90 days | 105.94 | under 95 |
Using standard statistical methods, the probability of BancFirst moving above the current price in 90 days from now is under 95 (This stock probability chart shows the expected price distribution for BancFirst Stock over a 90-day window).
BancFirst Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for BancFirst
Predicting the future price of BancFirst involves applying a range of quantitative and qualitative techniques to the stock market. While no model guarantees accuracy, the practice of systematic forecasting helps investors structure their thinking and prepare for different market scenarios.Mean reversion opportunities in BancFirst's arise when market prices disconnect from fundamental anchors such as earnings, book value, or historical price-to-earnings multiples.
Primary Risk Indicators
Market turbulence over the past two decades has affected virtually every corner of the stock market. BancFirst has experienced its share of dramatic price moves. Investors can manage this risk by monitoring BancFirst's volatility and elasticity within a framework of fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.31 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.63 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
Investor Alerts and Insights
Automated stock alerts for BancFirst keep investors informed of key developments without constant manual monitoring. BancFirst notifications highlight material changes that could affect portfolio decisions and overall risk exposure.| BancFirst generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 57.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from kalkinemedia.com: Banc First Gains Institutional Interest In Nasdaq Composite |
Price Density Drivers
Monitoring BancFirst's price density drivers helps investors identify periods when the balance between long and short positioning is shifting. These dynamics often precede changes in volatility and trend direction. Key indicators for BancFirst are listed below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 33.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 227 M |
BancFirst Fundamentals Growth
BancFirst Stock is valued by the market based on BancFirst's financial performance and outlook. Revenue and earnings growth, profitability metrics, and debt levels form the core set of fundamentals that drive BancFirst Stock price movements.
| Return On Equity | 0.14 | |||
| Return On Asset | 0.017 | |||
| Profit Margin | 0.35 % | |||
| Operating Margin | 0.49 % | |||
| Current Valuation | -757.39 M | |||
| Shares Outstanding | 33.55 M | |||
| Price To Earning | 28.20 X | |||
| Price To Book | 1.92 X | |||
| Price To Sales | 5.25 X | |||
| Revenue | 824.33 M | |||
| Gross Profit | 684.96 M | |||
| EBITDA | 325.92 M | |||
| Net Income | 240.61 M | |||
| Cash And Equivalents | 3.94 B | |||
| Cash Per Share | 119.79 X | |||
| Total Debt | 133.69 M | |||
| Debt To Equity | 0.05 % | |||
| Book Value Per Share | 55.28 X | |||
| Cash Flow From Operations | 285.82 M | |||
| Earnings Per Share | 7.11 X | |||
| Market Capitalization | 3.6 B | |||
| Total Asset | 14.87 B | |||
| Retained Earnings | 1.61 B | |||
Performance Metrics & Calculation Methodology
BancFirst performance is measured on a risk-adjusted basis against benchmarks. Cycle participation patterns help identify regime alignment. Market-sensitive characteristics may increase exposure to broader economic cycles. BancFirst shows ROE of 13.85%, ROA of 1.7%.
For BancFirst, this section uses periodic company reporting and market reference feeds with Macroaxis normalization rules applied to keep cross-asset comparisons consistent. Where analyst coverage exists, consensus estimates are factored in. Intraday timing differences may exist. Return and risk statistics are calculated from historical price series.