BancFirst Stock Performance

BANF Stock  USD 105.94  -1.31  -1.22%   
The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 1.31, which conveys a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. With a beta above 1, BancFirst typically delivers outsized gains in rising markets at the cost of steeper drawdowns. At this point, BancFirst has a negative expected return of -0.0187%. Please make sure to double-check BancFirst's the relationship between the maximum drawdown and skewness, to decide if BancFirst's performance from the past will be repeated at some future date.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Weak
 
Weak
 
Strong
For the recent 90-day horizon, BancFirst failed to convert risk into positive risk-adjusted performance. The result matters because weak risk-adjusted return can persist even when isolated price moves briefly look constructive. Despite nearly stable basic indicators, BancFirst is not utilizing all of its potential. The current price disturbance may contribute to mid-run losses for stockholders. Learn More

Actual Historical Performance (%)

 One Day Return
1.12
 Five Day Return
-0.35
 Year To Date Return
0.73
 Ten Year Return
274.48
 All Time Return
5.9 K
 Forward Dividend Yield
0.0183
 Payout Ratio
0.2711
 Last Split Factor
2:1
 Forward Dividend Rate
1.96
 Dividend Date
2026-04-15
Begin Period Cash Flow3.6 B
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities15 M

Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you had invested $ 11,122 in BancFirst on December 17, 2025 and sold it today you would have lost $ 255.00 from holding BancFirst or given up 2.29% of portfolio value over 90 days. BancFirst does not currently generate positive expected returns and carries 1.9676% risk (volatility on return distribution) over a 90-day horizon. In different words, 17% of stocks are less volatile than BancFirst, and 99% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
This benchmark view frames the instrument through return capture and volatility trade-offs. It highlights whether the current reward profile compensates for the level of uncertainty assumed. Given the investment horizon of 90 days BancFirst is expected to generate 2.46 times more return on investment than the market. However, the company is 2.46 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about -0.01 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly -0.04 per unit of risk.

Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

For forecasting purposes, the tendency of BancFirst Stock price to revert toward a long-term mean offers a useful anchor. However, investors should note that not all stocks correct quickly - persistent mispricings are often associated with additional risk factors that the market prices gradually.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds moving above the current price in 90 days
105.94 90 days 105.94
under 95
Using standard statistical methods, the probability of BancFirst moving above the current price in 90 days from now is under 95 (This stock probability chart shows the expected price distribution for BancFirst Stock over a 90-day window).
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.31 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, BancFirst will likely underperform. Additionally, BancFirst has an alpha of 0.0287, implying that it can generate a 0.0287 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherent market risk (beta).
   BancFirst Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for BancFirst

Predicting the future price of BancFirst involves applying a range of quantitative and qualitative techniques to the stock market. While no model guarantees accuracy, the practice of systematic forecasting helps investors structure their thinking and prepare for different market scenarios.
Mean reversion opportunities in BancFirst's arise when market prices disconnect from fundamental anchors such as earnings, book value, or historical price-to-earnings multiples.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
106.71108.68110.65
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
97.80117.30119.27
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
104.89106.86108.83
Details
Analyst
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
112.54123.67137.27
Details
Relative analysis of BancFirst against direct competitors reveals whether BancFirst's current valuation reflects a genuine competitive advantage or simply market-wide multiple expansion that applies to all sector peers.

Primary Risk Indicators

Market turbulence over the past two decades has affected virtually every corner of the stock market. BancFirst has experienced its share of dramatic price moves. Investors can manage this risk by monitoring BancFirst's volatility and elasticity within a framework of fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.03
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.31
σ
Overall volatility
3.63
Ir
Information ratio 0.01

Investor Alerts and Insights

Automated stock alerts for BancFirst keep investors informed of key developments without constant manual monitoring. BancFirst notifications highlight material changes that could affect portfolio decisions and overall risk exposure.
BancFirst generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
About 57.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from kalkinemedia.com: Banc First Gains Institutional Interest In Nasdaq Composite

Price Density Drivers

Monitoring BancFirst's price density drivers helps investors identify periods when the balance between long and short positioning is shifting. These dynamics often precede changes in volatility and trend direction. Key indicators for BancFirst are listed below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding33.9 M
Cash And Short Term Investments227 M

BancFirst Fundamentals Growth

BancFirst Stock is valued by the market based on BancFirst's financial performance and outlook. Revenue and earnings growth, profitability metrics, and debt levels form the core set of fundamentals that drive BancFirst Stock price movements.

Performance Metrics & Calculation Methodology

BancFirst performance is measured on a risk-adjusted basis against benchmarks. Cycle participation patterns help identify regime alignment. Market-sensitive characteristics may increase exposure to broader economic cycles. BancFirst shows ROE of 13.85%, ROA of 1.7%.

For BancFirst, this section uses periodic company reporting and market reference feeds with Macroaxis normalization rules applied to keep cross-asset comparisons consistent. Where analyst coverage exists, consensus estimates are factored in. Intraday timing differences may exist. Return and risk statistics are calculated from historical price series.

This content is curated and reviewed by:

Raphi Shpitalnik - Junior Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board
Last reviewed on March 6th, 2026