First Trustconfluence Small Fund Market Value
| FOVCX Fund | USD 21.15 0.01 0.05% |
| Symbol | FIRST |
First Trust/confluence 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to First Trust/confluence's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of First Trust/confluence.
| 06/01/2025 |
| 07/01/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in First Trust/confluence on June 1, 2025 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding First Trustconfluence Small or generate 0.0% return on investment in First Trust/confluence over 30 days. First Trust/confluence is related to or competes with Global Real, Nomura Real, Fidelity Real, Amg Managers, Dfa Real, Aew Real, and Commonwealth Real. The fund seeks to achieve its investment objective by investing, under normal market conditions, at least 80 percent of ... More
First Trust/confluence Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure First Trust/confluence's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess First Trustconfluence Small upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.06) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 10.79 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.78) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.02 |
First Trust/confluence Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for First Trust/confluence's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as First Trust/confluence's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use First Trust/confluence historical prices to predict the future First Trust/confluence's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.03) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.10) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.11) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.05) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Trust/confluence's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
First Trust/confluence Backtested Returns
First Trust/confluence secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0202, which denotes the fund had a -0.0202 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. First Trustconfluence Small exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm First Trust/confluence's Variance of 3.11, standard deviation of 1.76, and Mean Deviation of 1.2 to check the risk estimate we provide. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.96, which means possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. First Trust/confluence returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, First Trust/confluence is expected to follow.
Auto-correlation | 0.02 |
Virtually no predictability
First Trustconfluence Small has virtually no predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between First Trust/confluence time series from 1st of June 2025 to 16th of June 2025 and 16th of June 2025 to 1st of July 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of First Trust/confluence price movement. The serial correlation of 0.02 indicates that only 2.0% of current First Trust/confluence price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.02 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.14 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.06 |
First Trust/confluence lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is First Trust/confluence mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting First Trust/confluence's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of First Trust/confluence returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that First Trust/confluence has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
First Trust/confluence regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If First Trust/confluence mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if First Trust/confluence mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in First Trust/confluence mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
First Trust/confluence Lagged Returns
When evaluating First Trust/confluence's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of First Trust/confluence mutual fund have on its future price. First Trust/confluence autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, First Trust/confluence autocorrelation shows the relationship between First Trust/confluence mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in First Trustconfluence Small.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in FIRST Mutual Fund
First Trust/confluence financial ratios help investors to determine whether FIRST Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in FIRST with respect to the benefits of owning First Trust/confluence security.
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