Timing the market can be tricky, especially with Helen of Troy (NASDAQ: HELE). The stock currently trades around $27.4, close to its valuation hype value of $27.68, but the overall sentiment is mixed. While the analyst consensus leans toward a buy, with a target price averaging around $37.67, recent momentum indicators suggest caution, with a period momentum of 0.6 and a day typical price of $27.4. The company’s valuation real value sits at about $31.06, but the possible downside could bring shares down to roughly $26.91. On the upside, analysts see potential to reach $33.8, but with earnings showing a loss of around 2.3 million, the financial picture isn’t exactly glowing. The daily balance of power remains strong at 0.91, yet the overall picture suggests that holding might be safer than rushing to sell, especially given the industry’s steady demand in household and personal products. Still, investors should keep a close eye on the valuation and momentum signals before making a move. Our analysis of Helen of Troy (NYSE: HELE) centers on its price movements and how they relate to various microeconomic factors. We use predictive analytics to develop daily price indicators and compare them with key drivers to spot potential trends. While careful planning is essential for successful investing, there are moments when decisive action can make a difference. Let’s explore why taking bold steps might be justified with Helen of Troy. Looking ahead to November, we’ll consider whether the company has the potential to become a more consistent grower, helping investors navigate the opportunities and risks ahead.
The successful prediction of Helen Of
stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published
stock prices of traded companies, such as Helen of Troy, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at
the intrinsic value of Helen Of based on Helen Of hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used
predictive technical indicators. We also calculate exposure to Helen Of's
market risk, different
technical and
fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then
comparing them to Helen Of's related companies.
Use Technical Analysis to project Helen expected Price
Helen Of technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Helen Of technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Helen Of trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions.
More Info...An Additional Perspective On Helen of Troy
The latest bullish price patterns experienced by current Helen Of shareholders may raise some interest from shareholders. The stock closed today at a share price of
27.61 on
840,756 in trading volume. The company executives have been very successful in rebalancing the firm assets at opportune times to take advantage of market volatility in
September. The stock standard deviation of daily returns for 90 days investing horizon is currently 3.45. The above-average risk is mostly attributed to market volatility and speculations regarding some of the upcoming earning calls from Helen of Troy partners.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2025 (projected) |
Gross Profit | 953.2M | 899.4M | 914.4M | 948.7M | Total Revenue | 2.2B | 2.1B | 1.9B | 2.0B |
Current Deferred Revenue Breakdown
Helen Of's Current Deferred Revenue is decreasing over the years with slightly volatile fluctuation. Current Deferred Revenue is expected to dwindle to about 19.5
M. Current Deferred Revenue usually refers to revenue that has been collected but not yet earned, typically from prepaid service contracts or subscriptions. This amount is considered a liability until the service is provided or the subscription period ends. At present, Helen Of's Current Deferred Revenue is projected to decrease significantly based on the last few years of reporting.
| 2014 | 131.87 Million |
| 2015 | 146.43 Million |
| 2017 | 130.99 Million |
| 2018 | 1.43 Million |
| 2019 | 213.19 Million |
| 2021 | 17.82 Million |
| 2024 | 20.49 Million |
| 2025 | 19.47 Million |
A penny saved is a penny earned, but with Helen of Troy (NASDAQ: HELE), investors should be cautious despite its attractive valuation metrics. The company’s market cap stands at just 620.02 million, with a Price to Earnings ratio of 9.53X and a Price to Sales of 0.33X, suggesting some value potential. However, its net income of 123.75 million is offset by a high probability of bankruptcy at 37.34% and a market risk adjusted performance near zero, indicating underlying financial instability. With a return on equity of -0.24 and a total debt of 962.95 million, the risk profile remains elevated, even as the stock shows a potential upside of 5.22. Given the mixed signals, investors should weigh the possibility of gains against the significant risks before deciding whether to hold or sell.
Will Helen Of growth be real after the surge?
Helen of Troy has seen its stock decline sharply, with a maximum drop of 26.66%, signaling a significant pullback from recent peaks. While a rebound might seem encouraging, this steep decline urges caution—investors should look for signs that any recovery is sustainable, not just a fleeting spike. The stock’s low volatility, combined with a skewness of -1.66 and kurtosis of 9.98, suggests some unusual risk characteristics. Monitoring volatility can help gauge Helen of Troy’s risk profile relative to broader market swings. During downturns, increased volatility often amplifies the pressure on the stock, making it harder for investors to stay the course.
Such periods may prompt portfolio rebalancing, as investors seek safer assets amid falling prices. Overall, vigilance is key before betting on a sustained recovery.Given the recent sharp rise in Helen of Troy's stock price, caution is warranted. While the overall analyst consensus remains a buy, with a possible upside of around
33.8 and a highest target of approximately
41.81, the current surge appears somewhat overstretched. The valuation market value sits at about
27.61, and the hype-driven valuation of
27.68 suggests investor enthusiasm may be ahead of fundamentals. With a possible downside target near
26.91, investors should consider whether the momentum is sustainable or if a pullback could be on the horizon. As always, balancing the optimistic forecasts with the underlying valuation signals is key before making any moves..
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Raphi Shpitalnik is a Junior Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board. Raphael is a young entrepreneur who joined Macroaxis on a part-time basis at the beginning of the pandemic and eventually acquired a real taste for investing and fintech. He likes to analyze different equity instruments across a wide range of industries, focusing primarily on consumer products, sports, fintech, cannabis, and AI.
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