Xunlei Stock Forward View

XNET Stock  USD 5.83  -0.33  -5.36%   
This page provides Naive Prediction reference data for Xunlei Ltd Adr, calculated from historical daily prices. The forecast output and associated deviation metrics are shown for informational use.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Xunlei Ltd Adr on the next trading day is expected to be 5.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.65.This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Xunlei Ltd Adr. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Xunlei. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights. Xunlei's Naive Prediction reference data is provided for informational and analytical purposes and does not constitute a trading recommendation.

Xunlei Cash Forecast

Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms that reveal hidden trends within Xunlei's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
 
Cash  
 First Reported
2009-12-31
 Previous Quarter
129.6 M
 Current Value
157 M
 Quarterly Volatility
106.9 M
Macro event markers
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
 
Interest Hikes
A naive forecasting model for Xunlei is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Xunlei Ltd Adr value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 21st of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Xunlei Ltd Adr on the next trading day is expected to be 5.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.08 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.65 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Xunlei Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Xunlei's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Xunlei  Xunlei Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Xunlei's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Market Value
5.83
5.82
Expected Value
9.45
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Xunlei stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Xunlei stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.5565
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2238
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0352
SAESum of the absolute errors13.6493
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Xunlei Ltd Adr. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Xunlei. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Other Forecasting Options for Xunlei

The price movement of Xunlei is a central concern for all potential investors, regardless of their level of expertise. Xunlei Stock price charts can be difficult to interpret due to the noise present in the data.

Xunlei Related Equities

The following equities are related to Xunlei within the Information Technology space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Xunlei against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Xunlei Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators applied to Xunlei stock help investors assess the relative momentum and resilience of the security in different market environments. By using these indicators, traders can make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell Xunlei Ltd Adr.

Xunlei Risk Indicators

Risk indicator analysis for Xunlei is essential for accurately projecting its future price trajectory. By identifying the level of risk embedded in Xunlei's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing and risk mitigation.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Xunlei

A coverage review of Xunlei Ltd Adr shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.

Xunlei Short Properties

A short-interest review of Xunlei Ltd Adr provides context for understanding whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding12.7 M
Cash And Short Term Investments305.2 M

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