Wal Mart Pink Sheet Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| WMMVF Stock | USD 3.16 -0.03 -0.94% |
This reference view applies Double Exponential Smoothing to Wal Mart de's historical closing prices. Wal Mart de's Double Exponential Smoothing reference page summarizes the forecasted price and model accuracy metrics from daily trading data.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Wal Mart de on the next trading day is expected to be 3.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.38.When Wal Mart de prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Wal Mart de trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Wal Mart observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All forecast values on this page for Wal Mart de are Double Exponential Smoothing reference data derived from historical price series. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Wal Mart de on the next trading day is expected to be 3.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.38 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Wal Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Wal Mart's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Wal Mart | Wal Mart Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Wal Mart de focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Wal Mart pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Wal Mart pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0137 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0912 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0283 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.3782 |
Other Forecasting Options for Wal Mart
Volume-weighted price analysis for Wal Pink Sheet gives heavier weight to price levels where trading activity was highest. Crossovers in the MACD line and signal line can identify shifts in Wal momentum before they appear in raw price.Wal Mart Related Equities
Wal Mart's market space within the Discount Stores space is best grasped by looking at the firms listed below. Checking cash flow across this peer set helps gauge Wal Mart's relative financial strength. Firms that trade at big discounts to peers on core metrics may be worth more research. This peer set gives the context needed for a well-rounded view of Wal Mart.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Wal Mart Market Strength Events
Evaluating the market strength of Wal Mart pink sheet allows investors to gauge shifts in market momentum. Monitoring these indicators highlights periods where Wal Mart de trading conditions shift meaningfully.
Wal Mart Risk Indicators
Understanding Wal Mart's risk indicators is essential for any investor seeking to forecast its future price accurately. By identifying how much risk is embedded in Wal Mart's investment, investors can decide how to position their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 2.6 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.08 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.82 | |||
| Variance | 14.59 | |||
| Downside Variance | 12.44 | |||
| Semi Variance | 9.48 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -3.39 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Wal Mart
Story coverage around Wal Mart de often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.
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Wal Mart financial ratios describe how key financial values relate to each other. These measures reflect profitability, cash flow, and enterprise value.