WealthBuilder Moderate Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| WMBFX Fund | USD 11.33 -0.05 -0.44% |
This page provides Simple Exponential Smoothing reference data for Wealthbuilder Moderate Balanced, calculated from historical daily prices. The forecast output and associated deviation metrics are shown for informational use.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Wealthbuilder Moderate Balanced on the next trading day is expected to be 11.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.40.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Wealthbuilder Moderate Balanced forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent WealthBuilder Moderate observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. WealthBuilder Moderate's Simple Exponential Smoothing reference data is provided for informational and analytical purposes and does not constitute a trading recommendation. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Wealthbuilder Moderate Balanced on the next trading day is expected to be 11.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0028 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.40 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict WealthBuilder Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that WealthBuilder Moderate's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Wealthbuilder Moderate Balanced focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of WealthBuilder Moderate mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent WealthBuilder Moderate mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.4004 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0037 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.04 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0035 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.4 |
Other Forecasting Options for WealthBuilder Moderate
The price movement of WealthBuilder is a central concern for all potential investors, regardless of their level of expertise. WealthBuilder Mutual Fund price charts can be difficult to interpret due to the noise present in the data.WealthBuilder Moderate Related Equities
The following equities are related to WealthBuilder Moderate within the Allocation--30% to 50% Equity space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing WealthBuilder Moderate against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
WealthBuilder Moderate Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators applied to WealthBuilder Moderate mutual fund help investors assess the relative momentum and resilience of the security in different market environments. By using these indicators, traders can make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell Wealthbuilder Moderate Balanced.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 11.33 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 11.33 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.03 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.05 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 46.0 |
WealthBuilder Moderate Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for WealthBuilder Moderate is essential for accurately projecting its future price trajectory. By identifying the level of risk embedded in WealthBuilder Moderate's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing and risk mitigation.
| Mean Deviation | 0.3543 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.4079 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.4622 | |||
| Variance | 0.2136 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.2761 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.1664 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.39 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for WealthBuilder Moderate
Story coverage around Wealthbuilder Moderate Balanced often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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