Waste Management Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| WM Stock | USD 231.24 -2.59 -1.11% |
This page documents Double Exponential Smoothing forecast output for Waste Management as reference data. The model is applied to historical closing prices and the resulting projection and error statistics are shown below.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Waste Management on the next trading day is expected to be 231.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.91 and the sum of the absolute errors of 112.66.When Waste Management prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Waste Management trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Waste Management observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The Double Exponential Smoothing reference information for Waste Management is based on available price data and is intended for informational purposes. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Waste Management on the next trading day is expected to be 231.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.91 , mean absolute percentage error of 8.21 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 112.66 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Waste Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Waste Management's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Waste Management | Waste Management Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Waste Management focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Waste Management stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Waste Management stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.4699 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.9094 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0084 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 112.656 |
Other Forecasting Options for Waste Management
Any investor evaluating Waste must grapple with the challenge of interpreting Waste Management's price movement accurately. Waste Stock price charts typically contain substantial noise that can complicate analysis and lead to poor decisions.Waste Management Related Equities
The following equities are related to Waste Management within the Industrials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Waste Management against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Waste Management Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Waste Management assess how the stock responds to ongoing changes in market conditions and investor sentiment. By monitoring these indicators, investors can identify the most opportune moments to trade Waste Management.
Waste Management Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for Waste Management is a critical component of accurate price forecasting and sound investment decision-making. By identifying how much risk is embedded in Waste Management's investment, investors can decide how to position and protect their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7946 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.27 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.17 | |||
| Variance | 1.38 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.1 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.62 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.73 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Waste Management
Story coverage around Waste Management often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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Waste Management Short Properties
Short-interest signals around Waste Management can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 404.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 201 M |