Weave Communications Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

WEAV Stock  USD 4.37  -0.15  -3.32%   
This reference page presents Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Weave Communications. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Weave Communications on the next trading day is expected to be 4.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.91.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Weave Communications observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Weave Communications observations. This Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Weave Communications is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information.
Triple exponential smoothing for Weave Communications - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Weave Communications prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Weave Communications price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Weave Communications.

Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Weave Communications on the next trading day is expected to be 4.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.06 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.91 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Weave Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Weave Communications' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

The next-day forecast for Weave Communications focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. No forecasting approach has been shown to beat all others over time. Investors should treat any model output as a guide, not a guarantee.
Market Value
4.37
4.33
Expected Value
7.72
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Weave Communications stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Weave Communications stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.036
MADMean absolute deviation0.185
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0315
SAESum of the absolute errors10.9146
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Weave Communications observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Weave Communications observations.

Other Forecasting Options for Weave Communications

Weave Communications' daily price returns can be decomposed into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in Weave often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration.

Weave Communications Related Equities

Checking Weave Communications against related firms within the Information Technology space helps investors see where the stock stands among peers. Growth rate gaps between Weave Communications and its peers often explain pricing differences in the market. Falling behind peers on key ratios may signal headwinds or execution issues worth looking into. The data below allows side-by-side review across the most common financial metrics.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Weave Communications Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors evaluate how Weave Communications stock reacts to evolving market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading Weave Communications.

Weave Communications Risk Indicators

The analysis of Weave Communications' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding Weave Communications' allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Weave Communications

Story coverage around Weave Communications often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.

Weave Communications Short Properties

A short-interest review of Weave Communications provides context for understanding whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding76.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments81.7 M

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