WALDEN SMID Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| WASMX Fund | USD 23.13 -0.15 -0.64% |
This page provides Simple Exponential Smoothing reference data for Walden Smid Cap, calculated from historical daily prices. The model output shown here is derived from WALDEN SMID's historical price series and is provided for informational purposes.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Walden Smid Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 23.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.32.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Walden Smid Cap forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent WALDEN SMID observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The Simple Exponential Smoothing reference information for WALDEN SMID is based on available price data and is intended for informational purposes. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Walden Smid Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 23.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.05 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.32 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict WALDEN Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that WALDEN SMID's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest WALDEN SMID | WALDEN SMID Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates WALDEN SMID's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The current forecast range spans downside near 22.27 and upside near 23.99.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of WALDEN SMID mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent WALDEN SMID mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.0182 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0262 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1692 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0069 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.32 |
Other Forecasting Options for WALDEN SMID
The autocorrelation structure of WALDEN SMID's daily returns reveals whether WALDEN exhibits momentum, mean-reversion, or random-walk behavior. Separating these elements helps distinguish persistent directional moves from temporary noise in WALDEN Mutual Fund price data.WALDEN SMID Related Equities
Sizing up WALDEN SMID against these stocks within the Mid-Cap Blend space shows how it compares on key financial measures. Looking at WALDEN SMID's pricing multiples next to these peers shows if the stock trades at a premium or discount. Peer pricing works best when the firms compared share similar business models and end markets.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
WALDEN SMID Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators applied to WALDEN SMID mutual fund help assess momentum and resilience across environments. These indicators support informed market timing decisions when analyzing WALDEN SMID.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 23.13 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 23.13 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.07 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.15 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 35.92 |
WALDEN SMID Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for WALDEN SMID is essential for accurately projecting its future price trajectory. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in WALDEN SMID's investment and either accepting or mitigating it.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6535 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.8334 | |||
| Variance | 0.6946 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for WALDEN SMID
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Walden Smid Cap can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.