Wells Fargo Mutual Fund Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| WARAX Fund | USD 12.60 0.02 0.16% |
This reference page presents Double Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Wells Fargo Advantage. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Wells Fargo Advantage on the next trading day is expected to be 12.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.14.When Wells Fargo Advantage prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Wells Fargo Advantage trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Wells Fargo observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Double Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Wells Fargo Advantage is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Wells Fargo Advantage on the next trading day is expected to be 12.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.14 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Wells Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Wells Fargo's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Wells Fargo | Wells Fargo Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Wells Fargo Advantage focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. No forecasting approach has been shown to beat all others over time. Investors should treat any model output as a guide, not a guarantee.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Wells Fargo mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Wells Fargo mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0115 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0702 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0059 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.139 |
Other Forecasting Options for Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo's daily price returns can be decomposed into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in Wells often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration.Wells Fargo Related Equities
Checking Wells Fargo against related firms within the Tactical Allocation space helps investors see where the stock stands among peers. Key comparison metrics include price-to-earnings, profit margin, and revenue growth across Wells Fargo's peer group. Peer pricing works best when the firms compared share similar business models and end markets.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Wells Fargo Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors evaluate how Wells Fargo mutual fund reacts to evolving market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading Wells Fargo Advantage.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 12.6 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 12.6 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.02 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 66.97 |
Wells Fargo Risk Indicators
The analysis of Wells Fargo's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding Wells Fargo's allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5472 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.4681 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.7035 | |||
| Variance | 0.495 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.7563 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.2191 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.62 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Wells Fargo
Story coverage around Wells Fargo Advantage often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.