Vitesse Energy Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

VTS Stock   18.66  -0.77  -3.96%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast reference data for Vitesse Energy is based on the equity's recent trading history. Forecast values and accuracy indicators are summarized on this page for reference. This reference information is provided for analytical context.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Vitesse Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 18.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.91.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Vitesse Energy observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Vitesse Energy observations. The Triple Exponential Smoothing projections for Vitesse Energy are reference data based on historical daily prices and are provided as informational context.
Triple exponential smoothing for Vitesse Energy - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Vitesse Energy prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Vitesse Energy price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Vitesse Energy.

Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Vitesse Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 18.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.27 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.91 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Vitesse Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Vitesse Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Vitesse Energy  Vitesse Energy Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

This next-day forecast for Vitesse Energy uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The current forecast range spans downside near 16.16 and upside near 21.04.
Market Value
18.66
18.60
Expected Value
21.04
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Vitesse Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Vitesse Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0571
MADMean absolute deviation0.4053
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0205
SAESum of the absolute errors23.91
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Vitesse Energy observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Vitesse Energy observations.

Other Forecasting Options for Vitesse Energy

Volatility clustering is a well-documented feature of Vitesse Stock price data where periods of large moves tend to follow other large moves. When Vitesse Energy's RSI reaches extreme levels, it often precedes a short-term price correction or consolidation. Seasonal patterns in Vitesse Energy's returns can persist when driven by structural factors like earnings calendars or index rebalancing.

Vitesse Energy Related Equities

These related stocks within the Energy space give benchmarks for judging Vitesse Energy's results, margins, and growth trend. Return on equity across these peers shows how well each firm turns capital into profit.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Vitesse Energy Market Strength Events

Analyzing market strength indicators for Vitesse Energy enables investors to understand relative stock momentum. These tools help identify favorable windows for position changes in Vitesse Energy. Market strength indicators support more precise timing of Vitesse Energy positions across market cycles.

Vitesse Energy Risk Indicators

Identifying and analyzing Vitesse Energy's key risk indicators is a foundational step in projecting how its price may evolve. This process involves measuring the level of investment risk in Vitesse Energy's and determining how best to manage it. Studying Vitesse Energy's risk indicators helps investors understand the risk level of vitesse stock.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Vitesse Energy

Coverage intensity for Vitesse Energy matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.

Vitesse Energy Short Properties

A short-interest review of Vitesse Energy provides context for understanding whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding39.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments1.3 M

Additional Tools for Vitesse Stock Analysis

Money Managers
Screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world
Performance Analysis
Check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation
Stocks Directory
Find actively traded stocks across global markets
Portfolio File Import
Quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format
Commodity Directory
Find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges
Volatility Analysis
Get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data
Share Portfolio
Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device
Competition Analyzer
Analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities
Price Exposure Probability
Analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets