Virtus Dfa Mutual Fund Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| VTARX Fund | USD 9.76 0.02 0.20% |
Virtus Mutual Fund outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Virtus Dfa's mutual fund price is slightly above 67. This entails that the mutual fund is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Virtus, making its price go up or down. Momentum 67
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Virtus Dfa hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Virtus Dfa 2040 from the perspective of Virtus Dfa response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Virtus Dfa 2040 on the next trading day is expected to be 9.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.33. Virtus Dfa after-hype prediction price | USD 9.6 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Virtus |
Virtus Dfa Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Virtus price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Virtus using various technical indicators. When you analyze Virtus charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Virtus Dfa Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Virtus Dfa 2040 on the next trading day is expected to be 9.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.33.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Virtus Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Virtus Dfa's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Virtus Dfa Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Virtus Dfa | Virtus Dfa Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Virtus Dfa Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Virtus Dfa's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Virtus Dfa's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7.60 and 11.94, respectively. We have considered Virtus Dfa's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Virtus Dfa mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Virtus Dfa mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0134 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0564 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0061 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.33 |
Predictive Modules for Virtus Dfa
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Virtus Dfa 2040. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Virtus Dfa After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Virtus Dfa at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Virtus Dfa or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Virtus Dfa, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Virtus Dfa Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Virtus Dfa's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Virtus Dfa's historical news coverage. Virtus Dfa's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 7.43 and 11.77, respectively. We have considered Virtus Dfa's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Virtus Dfa is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Virtus Dfa 2040 is based on 3 months time horizon.
Virtus Dfa Mutual Fund Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Virtus Dfa is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Virtus Dfa backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Virtus Dfa, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.27 | 2.17 | 0.16 | 0.01 | 4 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
9.76 | 9.60 | 1.64 |
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Virtus Dfa Hype Timeline
Virtus Dfa 2040 is at this time traded for 9.76. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.16, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Virtus is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 9.6. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -1.64%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.27%. The volatility of related hype on Virtus Dfa is about 4489.66%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 9.75. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next projected press release will be in about 4 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Virtus Dfa to cross-verify your projections.Virtus Dfa Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Virtus Dfa's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Virtus Dfa's future price movements. Getting to know how Virtus Dfa's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Virtus Dfa may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FIKBX | Fidelity Advisor Financial | (0.01) | 1 per month | 0.71 | 0.10 | 1.70 | (1.63) | 8.31 | |
| BTO | John Hancock Financial | (0.20) | 5 per month | 0.89 | 0.1 | 2.95 | (1.84) | 5.37 | |
| FTIXX | Goldman Sachs Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| FAFDX | Fidelity Advisor Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.71 | 0.10 | 1.68 | (1.66) | 8.53 | |
| XFINX | Angel Oak Financial | (0.01) | 2 per month | 0.26 | (0.15) | 0.36 | (0.43) | 1.58 | |
| ICFAX | Icon Financial Fund | (0.07) | 1 per month | 0.42 | 0.10 | 1.66 | (0.98) | 14.63 |
Other Forecasting Options for Virtus Dfa
For every potential investor in Virtus, whether a beginner or expert, Virtus Dfa's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Virtus Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Virtus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Virtus Dfa's price trends.Virtus Dfa Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Virtus Dfa mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Virtus Dfa could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Virtus Dfa by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Virtus Dfa Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Virtus Dfa mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Virtus Dfa shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Virtus Dfa mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Virtus Dfa 2040 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 9.76 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 9.76 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.01) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.02) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 67.68 |
Virtus Dfa Risk Indicators
The analysis of Virtus Dfa's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Virtus Dfa's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting virtus mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6648 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.09 | |||
| Variance | 4.37 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.3033 | |||
| Semi Variance | (0.04) | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.92) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Virtus Dfa
The number of cover stories for Virtus Dfa depends on current market conditions and Virtus Dfa's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Virtus Dfa is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Virtus Dfa's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Virtus Mutual Fund
Virtus Dfa financial ratios help investors to determine whether Virtus Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Virtus with respect to the benefits of owning Virtus Dfa security.
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