Koninklijke Vopak Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| VPK Stock | EUR 47.76 -0.12 -0.25% |
Momentum
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
This section relates Koninklijke Vopak NV headline activity to recent price behavior and peer context.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Koninklijke Vopak NV on the next trading day is expected to be 48.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.68.Koninklijke Vopak after-hype prediction price | € 47.76 |
The module provides attention context in addition to forecasting models, technical indicators, analyst estimates, and earnings trends.
Koninklijke |
Koninklijke Vopak Additional Predictive Modules
Forecasting Koninklijke Vopak's price movement relies on structured analysis of indicator behavior, momentum signatures, and historical volatility patterns. Ensemble techniques that blend multiple model outputs often produce more stable predictions than any single model.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 18th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Koninklijke Vopak NV on the next trading day is expected to be 48.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.33 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.68 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Koninklijke Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Koninklijke Vopak's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Koninklijke Vopak | Koninklijke Vopak Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Koninklijke Vopak NV focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 46.80 on the downside to about 49.36 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Koninklijke Vopak stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Koninklijke Vopak stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.148 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.378 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0088 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 22.68 |
Mean reversion traders in Koninklijke Vopak's look for price extremes that diverge materially from the historical norm, then position for the reversion that typically follows when the initial catalyst fades.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
Financial return distributions for assets like Koninklijke Vopak are rarely normal. Koninklijke Vopak's price distribution may exhibit fat tails - a higher probability of extreme outcomes than a Gaussian model would predict - making tail risk management essential for Koninklijke Vopak investors.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
After analyzing Koninklijke Vopak's historical price reactions to major news events, we derive statistically significant upside and downside boundaries for the next significant headline. Koninklijke Vopak's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 46.49 and 49.03, respectively. These boundaries reflect how Koninklijke Vopak has historically moved in response to comparable catalysts.
Current Value
Macroaxis estimates the after-hype price of Koninklijke Vopak NV across a 3 months horizon to evaluate where the instrument could settle once headline distortion subsides. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Koninklijke Vopak is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Koninklijke Vopak backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Koninklijke Vopak, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.42 | 1.28 | 0.02 | 0.24 | 2 Events | 1 Events | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
47.76 | 47.76 | 0.00 |
|
Hype Timeline
Koninklijke Vopak is at this time traded for 47.76on Euronext Amsterdam of Netherlands. The company has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.24. Koninklijke is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.42%. %. The volatility of related hype on Koninklijke Vopak is about 226.55%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 47.52. About 53.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 1.68. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Koninklijke Vopak has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.31. The company had its last dividend issued on the 25th of April 2025. The firm completed a 2:1 stock split on 18th of May 2010. Assuming the 90-day trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Cross-verify projections for Koninklijke Vopak using Historical Fundamental Analysis of Koninklijke Vopak. The view supplies historical context for the projection discussion.Related Hype Analysis
The comparative hype analysis table for Koninklijke Vopak provides risk metrics - including hype elasticity, information ratio, and semi-deviation - for Koninklijke Vopak's direct competitors. helping investors contextualize the relative news sensitivity of Koninklijke Vopak.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AALB | Aalberts Industries NV | -0.70 | 3 per month | 1.54 | 0.1 | 4.04 | -2.50 | 12.78 | |
| NN | NN Group NV | 0.02 | 5 per month | 1.32 | 0.08 | 1.79 | -2.43 | 5.78 | |
| RAND | Randstad NV | -1.94 | 3 per month | 0.00 | -0.11 | 3.09 | -3.50 | 16.40 | |
| SBMO | SBM Offshore NV | 0.36 | 2 per month | 0.75 | 0.33 | 2.82 | -2.09 | 7.67 |
Other Forecasting Options for Koninklijke Vopak
Understanding Koninklijke Vopak's price movement is a critical first step for any investor considering Koninklijke. The noise present in Koninklijke Stock price charts can easily mislead investors who rely solely on visual inspection.Koninklijke Vopak Related Equities
The following equities are related to Koninklijke Vopak within the Energy space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Koninklijke Vopak against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Koninklijke Vopak Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators provide a structured view of how Koninklijke Vopak stock is positioned relative to prevailing market trends. Investors use these tools to determine the best times to initiate or close positions in Koninklijke Vopak NV.
Koninklijke Vopak Risk Indicators
The analysis of Koninklijke Vopak's risk metrics is one of the most important steps in accurately projecting its future price. This process involves measuring the level of investment risk in Koninklijke Vopak's and determining how best to manage it.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8048 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.3791 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.25 | |||
| Variance | 1.55 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.748 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.1437 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.01 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Koninklijke Vopak
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Koninklijke Vopak NV can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis publishes story content for a diverse readership that includes finance students, independent investors, money managers, and market-focused operating teams. What connects that audience is a focus on building stronger portfolios through better research, risk awareness, and comparative analysis.
Story Categories
Currently Trending Categories
Koninklijke Vopak Short Properties
Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Koninklijke Vopak NV is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 115.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 99.5 M |
Additional Tools for Koninklijke Stock Analysis
| Risk-Return Analysis View associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume | |
| Latest Portfolios Quick portfolio dashboard that showcases your latest portfolios | |
| ETF Categories List of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments | |
| Bonds Directory Find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies | |
| Sign In To Macroaxis Sign in to explore Macroaxis' wealth optimization platform and fintech modules | |
| Equity Analysis Research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities | |
| Price Transformation Use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets | |
| My Watchlist Analysis Analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like |