Voyageur Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| VM Stock | CAD 0.15 0.02 11.76% |
Voyageur Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Voyageur Pharmaceuticals' share price is approaching 42. This entails that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Voyageur Pharmaceuticals, making its price go up or down. Momentum 42
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Wall Street Target Price 0.55 |
Using Voyageur Pharmaceuticals hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Voyageur Pharmaceuticals from the perspective of Voyageur Pharmaceuticals response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Voyageur Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 0.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.37. Voyageur Pharmaceuticals after-hype prediction price | CAD 0.15 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Voyageur |
Voyageur Pharmaceuticals Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Voyageur price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Voyageur using various technical indicators. When you analyze Voyageur charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Voyageur Pharmaceuticals Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Voyageur Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 0.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.000075, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.37.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Voyageur Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Voyageur Pharmaceuticals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Voyageur Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Voyageur Pharmaceuticals | Voyageur Pharmaceuticals Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Voyageur Pharmaceuticals Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Voyageur Pharmaceuticals' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Voyageur Pharmaceuticals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 5.50, respectively. We have considered Voyageur Pharmaceuticals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Voyageur Pharmaceuticals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Voyageur Pharmaceuticals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 2.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0061 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0372 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.3684 |
Predictive Modules for Voyageur Pharmaceuticals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Voyageur Pharmaceuticals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Voyageur Pharmaceuticals After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Voyageur Pharmaceuticals at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Voyageur Pharmaceuticals or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Voyageur Pharmaceuticals, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Voyageur Pharmaceuticals Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Voyageur Pharmaceuticals' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Voyageur Pharmaceuticals' historical news coverage. Voyageur Pharmaceuticals' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.01 and 5.49, respectively. We have considered Voyageur Pharmaceuticals' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Voyageur Pharmaceuticals is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Voyageur Pharmaceuticals is based on 3 months time horizon.
Voyageur Pharmaceuticals Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Voyageur Pharmaceuticals is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Voyageur Pharmaceuticals backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Voyageur Pharmaceuticals, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 5.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | Very soon |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
0.15 | 0.15 | 0.00 |
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Voyageur Pharmaceuticals Hype Timeline
Voyageur Pharmaceuticals is at this time traded for 0.15on TSX Venture Exchange of Canada. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Voyageur is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.03%. %. The volatility of related hype on Voyageur Pharmaceuticals is about 29904.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.15. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.02. Voyageur Pharmaceuticals last dividend was issued on the 7th of March 2017. The entity had 1:2 split on the 7th of March 2017. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be very soon. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Voyageur Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections.Voyageur Pharmaceuticals Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Voyageur Pharmaceuticals' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Voyageur Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. Getting to know how Voyageur Pharmaceuticals' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Voyageur Pharmaceuticals may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AVCN | Avicanna | (0.01) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 4.76 | (7.41) | 20.70 | |
| LABS | Medipharm Labs Corp | (0) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 7.69 | (7.14) | 22.05 | |
| CWEB | Charlottes Web Holdings | 0.05 | 3 per month | 7.83 | 0.20 | 22.03 | (14.29) | 50.26 | |
| BCT | Briacell Therapeutics Corp | (0.14) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 13.73 | (11.83) | 98.76 | |
| PINK | Perimeter Medical Imaging | 0.01 | 8 per month | 7.16 | 0.05 | 16.67 | (14.29) | 46.21 | |
| RVX | Resverlogix Corp | 0.00 | 5 per month | 3.48 | 0.01 | 10.00 | (9.09) | 26.67 | |
| ROMJ | Rubicon Organics | (0.03) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 5.88 | (6.00) | 16.38 |
Other Forecasting Options for Voyageur Pharmaceuticals
For every potential investor in Voyageur, whether a beginner or expert, Voyageur Pharmaceuticals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Voyageur Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Voyageur. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Voyageur Pharmaceuticals' price trends.Voyageur Pharmaceuticals Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Voyageur Pharmaceuticals stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Voyageur Pharmaceuticals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Voyageur Pharmaceuticals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Voyageur Pharmaceuticals Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Voyageur Pharmaceuticals stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Voyageur Pharmaceuticals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Voyageur Pharmaceuticals stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Voyageur Pharmaceuticals entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 21916.59 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.00) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.88 | |||
| Day Median Price | 0.16 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 0.16 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.02) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.02) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 42.03 |
Voyageur Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators
The analysis of Voyageur Pharmaceuticals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Voyageur Pharmaceuticals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting voyageur stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.16 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.98 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.2 | |||
| Variance | 27.02 | |||
| Downside Variance | 67.86 | |||
| Semi Variance | 15.83 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (7.58) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Voyageur Pharmaceuticals
The number of cover stories for Voyageur Pharmaceuticals depends on current market conditions and Voyageur Pharmaceuticals' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Voyageur Pharmaceuticals is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Voyageur Pharmaceuticals' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Voyageur Pharmaceuticals Short Properties
Voyageur Pharmaceuticals' future price predictability will typically decrease when Voyageur Pharmaceuticals' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Voyageur Pharmaceuticals often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Voyageur Pharmaceuticals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Voyageur Pharmaceuticals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 139.5 M | |
| Shares Float | 162.2 M |
Additional Tools for Voyageur Stock Analysis
When running Voyageur Pharmaceuticals' price analysis, check to measure Voyageur Pharmaceuticals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Voyageur Pharmaceuticals is operating at the current time. Most of Voyageur Pharmaceuticals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Voyageur Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Voyageur Pharmaceuticals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Voyageur Pharmaceuticals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.