Valartis Group Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| VLRT Stock | CHF 11.60 0.20 1.75% |
Momentum
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.17 | Quarterly Revenue Growth -0.01 |
The hype context for Valartis Group AG summarizes headline response alongside peer coverage.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Valartis Group AG on the next trading day is expected to be 11.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.20.Valartis Group after-hype prediction price | ₣ 11.6 |
This sentiment summary adds context across forecasting, technical, analyst, and earnings perspectives for the stock.
Valartis |
Valartis Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Valartis price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Valartis using various technical indicators. When you analyze Valartis charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Valartis Group Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 12th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Valartis Group AG on the next trading day is expected to be 11.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.35 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.20 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Valartis Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Valartis Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Valartis Group Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Valartis Group | Valartis Group Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Valartis Group Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Valartis Group AG uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Valartis Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Valartis Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.2192 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0233 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4033 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0348 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 24.2 |
The mean reversion tendency in Valartis Group's price is a well-documented phenomenon that disciplined investors can exploit by identifying when price has diverged substantially from fundamental and historical anchors.
Valartis Group After-Hype Price Density Analysis
The probability distribution chart for Valartis Group displays the range and likelihood of predicted price outcomes based on Valartis Group's historical volatility and news impact patterns. Use the full distribution - not just the central estimate - to understand the true risk and reward.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Valartis Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
The after-hype price analysis for Valartis Group uses Valartis Group's historical news coverage to estimate statistically significant upside and downside price boundaries for the session following a major headline.
Current Value
The after-hype framework applied to Valartis Group AG assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
Valartis Group Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Valartis Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Valartis Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Valartis Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.12 | 4.59 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 2 Events | 0 Events | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
11.60 | 11.60 | 0.00 |
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Valartis Group Hype Timeline
Valartis Group AG is at this time traded for 11.60on SIX Swiss Exchange of Switzerland. The company has historical hype elasticity of 0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Valartis is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.12%. %. The volatility of related hype on Valartis Group is about 2781.82%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.58. About 85.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 0.32. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Valartis Group AG last dividend was issued on the 16th of May 2024. The company completed a 10:1 stock split on 16th of July 2001. Assuming the 90-day trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in a few days. Historical Fundamental Analysis of Valartis Group provides a cross-check on projections for Valartis Group. The view supplies historical context for the projection discussion.Valartis Group Related Hype Analysis
Analyzing Valartis Group's direct competitors. news reactions provides a leading indicator for how Valartis Group may respond to comparable market events. The peer hype analysis table captures key risk and sentiment metrics across Valartis Group's competitive set, helping investors anticipate.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MIKN | Mikron Holding AG | -0.66 | 4 per month | 0.00 | -0.09 | 3.80 | -3.29 | 19.62 | |
| STGN | Starrag Group Holding | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.50 | 0.1 | 3.13 | -2.67 | 10.37 | |
| STRN | Schlatter Industries AG | 0.00 | 1 per month | 0.00 | -0.0045 | 3.96 | -3.92 | 15.66 | |
| ZUBN | Zueblin Immobilien Holding | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.53 | 0.02 | 3.52 | -4.98 | 12.92 |
Other Forecasting Options for Valartis Group
For any investor considering Valartis, Valartis Group's price movement is the central factor in determining investment viability. The noise present in Valartis Stock price charts can distort investment decisions if not properly addressed.Valartis Group Related Equities
The following equities are related to Valartis Group within the Financials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Valartis Group against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Valartis Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Valartis Group stock help investors evaluate the security's behavior relative to ongoing market conditions. These tools support better market timing and help identify entry and exit signals for Valartis Group AG.
Valartis Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of Valartis Group's basic risk indicators is a key input for accurate price forecasting and sound investment decisions. Understanding the risk in Valartis Group's investment allows investors to make informed choices about accepting or mitigating that exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 2.92 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.9 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.72 | |||
| Variance | 22.31 | |||
| Downside Variance | 32.78 | |||
| Semi Variance | 15.21 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -4.41 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Valartis Group
Coverage intensity for Valartis Group AG matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Story coverage on Macroaxis is built for readers who approach markets from different levels of experience but share the same need for disciplined investment context. Used well, these stories become part of a broader workflow built around idea generation, validation, and risk-adjusted portfolio design.
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Valartis Group Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Valartis Group AG matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 29.2 M |
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