VALUE LINE Mutual Fund Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| VLEOX Fund | USD 61.47 0.41 0.67% |
VALUE LINE's Double Exponential Smoothing reference data reflects the model's output when applied to available daily price observations. This page summarizes the model output and key accuracy metrics for reference. The projected value and error metrics are calculated from available daily price observations. This information is intended as reference material for analytical purposes.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Value Line Small on the next trading day is expected to be 61.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.57 and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.01.When Value Line Small prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Value Line Small trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent VALUE LINE observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The Double Exponential Smoothing reference values for VALUE LINE are derived from publicly available price data and should be used for informational purposes only. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Value Line Small on the next trading day is expected to be 61.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.57 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.51 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.01 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict VALUE Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that VALUE LINE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates VALUE LINE's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. At the moment, the model places downside around 60.35 and upside around 62.55 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of VALUE LINE mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent VALUE LINE mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0651 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5668 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0091 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 34.0105 |
Other Forecasting Options for VALUE LINE
Relative Strength Index values for VALUE measure the speed and magnitude of recent price changes. Recognizing these clusters in VALUE LINE's returns helps calibrate position size and stop-loss levels. Candlestick pattern analysis of VALUE Mutual Fund daily data can reveal short-term reversal or continuation signals. Identifying these patterns in VALUE Mutual Fund data supports better trade timing.VALUE LINE Related Equities
Investors studying VALUE LINE often look at related stocks within the Small Growth space to gauge pricing and results. Checking cash flow across this peer set helps gauge VALUE LINE's relative financial strength. How VALUE LINE ranks within this group can shift over time as the competitive picture changes. These links can also guide portfolio spreading choices within the sector.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
VALUE LINE Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators provide a structured view of how VALUE LINE mutual fund is positioned relative to trends. These indicators are valuable tools for identifying when to enter or exit positions in Value Line Small. These signals help validate or refine position timing for VALUE LINE. Review these indicators alongside VALUE LINE's fundamental data for a complete analytical picture.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 61.47 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 61.47 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.2 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.41 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 39.29 |
VALUE LINE Risk Indicators
The analysis of VALUE LINE's risk metrics is one of the most important steps in projecting its future price. This process quantifies the risk associated with VALUE LINE's and helps determine how to manage it. A structured analysis of VALUE LINE's risk indicators is one of the most reliable ways to improve forecast accuracy. Investors who carefully evaluate the risks in VALUE LINE's are better positioned to make informed decisions.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8141 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.06 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.06 | |||
| Variance | 1.13 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.21 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.13 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.81 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for VALUE LINE
A coverage review of Value Line Small shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.