Vanguard Canadian Etf Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| VLB Etf | CAD 20.19 -0.11 -0.54% |
Vanguard Canadian's Double Exponential Smoothing reference data is generated by applying the model to available daily closing prices. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Vanguard Canadian Long Term on the next trading day is expected to be 20.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.55.When Vanguard Canadian Long Term prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Vanguard Canadian Long Term trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Vanguard Canadian observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The Double Exponential Smoothing reference values for Vanguard Canadian are derived from publicly available price data and should be used for informational purposes only. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Vanguard Canadian Long Term on the next trading day is expected to be 20.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.55 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Vanguard Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Vanguard Canadian's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Vanguard Canadian | Vanguard Canadian Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Vanguard Canadian Long Term uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 19.71 on the downside to about 20.64 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Vanguard Canadian etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Vanguard Canadian etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0075 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0771 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0038 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.5483 |
Other Forecasting Options for Vanguard Canadian
For investors of all experience levels considering Vanguard, understanding Vanguard Canadian's price movement is fundamental to making sound investment decisions. Vanguard Etf price charts contain significant noise that can obscure meaningful trends.Vanguard Canadian Related Equities
The following equities are related to Vanguard Canadian within the Canadian Long Term Fixed Income space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Vanguard Canadian against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Vanguard Canadian Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Vanguard Canadian etf provide investors with a framework for assessing how the security responds to changing market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading Vanguard Canadian.
Vanguard Canadian Risk Indicators
Assessing Vanguard Canadian's risk indicators is a critical component of any rigorous approach to forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding Vanguard Canadian's allows investors to make an informed decision about whether to accept or mitigate that exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.3526 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.501 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.4636 | |||
| Variance | 0.215 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.2954 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.251 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.35 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Vanguard Canadian
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Vanguard Canadian Long Term can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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Financial ratios for Vanguard Canadian help frame valuation context across profits, cash flow, and enterprise value. They help compare Vanguard across valuation measures and peers.