VALUE LINE Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| VLAIX Fund | USD 33.24 -0.26 -0.78% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast shown here for VALUE LINE is reference data produced from the equity's historical price series. Accuracy metrics including mean absolute deviation are provided alongside the projection.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Value Line Asset on the next trading day is expected to be 33.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.44.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Value Line Asset forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent VALUE LINE observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Simple Exponential Smoothing reference page for VALUE LINE presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Value Line Asset on the next trading day is expected to be 33.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.04 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.44 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict VALUE Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that VALUE LINE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest VALUE LINE | VALUE LINE Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates VALUE LINE's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The current forecast range spans downside near 32.64 and upside near 33.84.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of VALUE LINE mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent VALUE LINE mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.1706 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0357 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1573 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0046 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.44 |
Other Forecasting Options for VALUE LINE
Regardless of investment experience, understanding VALUE LINE's price movement is essential for anyone considering a position in VALUE. Price charts for VALUE Mutual Fund are often filled with noise that can lead to poor investment choices if not properly filtered.VALUE LINE Related Equities
The following equities are related to VALUE LINE within the Allocation--50% to 70% Equity space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing VALUE LINE against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
VALUE LINE Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for VALUE LINE give investors insight into the mutual fund's responsiveness to broader market forces. Tracking these indicators provides context to make informed timing decisions and identify periods where trading VALUE LINE is likely to be most rewarding.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 33.24 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 33.24 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.13 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.26 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 34.69 |
VALUE LINE Risk Indicators
A thorough review of VALUE LINE's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price and managing investment exposure. This analysis provides context for determining the appropriate level of risk to accept when holding VALUE LINE's.
| Mean Deviation | 0.613 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.5451 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.56 | |||
| Variance | 2.44 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.5645 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.2971 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.71 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for VALUE LINE
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Value Line Asset can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis publishes story content for a diverse readership that includes finance students, independent investors, money managers, and market-focused operating teams. What connects that audience is a focus on building stronger portfolios through better research, risk awareness, and comparative analysis.