ProShares VIX Etf Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| VIXY Etf | USD 34.97 2.32 7.11% |
This reference page presents Double Exponential Smoothing forecast data for ProShares VIX Short Term. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ProShares VIX Short Term on the next trading day is expected to be 34.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.83 and the sum of the absolute errors of 48.93.When ProShares VIX Short Term prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any ProShares VIX Short Term trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent ProShares VIX observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Double Exponential Smoothing forecast data for ProShares VIX Short Term is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ProShares VIX Short Term on the next trading day is expected to be 34.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.83 , mean absolute percentage error of 1.37 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 48.93 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ProShares Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ProShares VIX's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ProShares VIX | ProShares VIX Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates ProShares VIX's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. At the moment, the model places downside around 30.41 and upside around 39.07 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ProShares VIX etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ProShares VIX etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1954 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8293 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0285 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 48.9277 |
Other Forecasting Options for ProShares VIX
ProShares VIX's daily price returns can be decomposed into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in ProShares often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration.ProShares VIX Related Equities
Sizing up ProShares VIX against these stocks within the Trading--Miscellaneous space shows how it compares on key financial measures. Return on equity across these peers shows how well each firm turns capital into profit.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ProShares VIX Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors evaluate how ProShares VIX etf reacts to evolving market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading ProShares VIX Short Term.
ProShares VIX Risk Indicators
The analysis of ProShares VIX's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding ProShares VIX's allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 3.15 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.54 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.33 | |||
| Variance | 18.72 | |||
| Downside Variance | 16.75 | |||
| Semi Variance | 12.52 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -3.49 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ProShares VIX
A coverage review of ProShares VIX Short Term shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
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More Resources for ProShares Etf Analysis
A clear view of ProShares VIX Short comes from reviewing its financial structure and trends. The dataset reflects ProShares VIX's available reporting history.Historical Fundamental Analysis of ProShares VIX can be used to cross-verify projections for ProShares VIX. ProShares VIX information on this page supports broader research rather than acting as a stand-alone signal. A thorough ProShares VIX review pairs this page with the quantitative and comparative resources listed below. You can also try the Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.
The market value of ProShares VIX Short is measured differently than book value, which reflects ProShares accounting equity. Intrinsic value reflects what ProShares VIX's fundamentals imply about worth, which may differ from both price and book figure.
ProShares VIX's value is shaped by fundamental inputs, whereas price is shaped by supply and demand dynamics. Valuation inputs span operating results, balance sheet health, and forward growth signals.