Value Line Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| VILSX Fund | USD 29.59 -0.21 -0.70% |
This page provides reference data for Value Line using Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting. The projected value and error metrics are calculated from available daily price observations.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Value Line Select on the next trading day is expected to be 29.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.47.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Value Line Select forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Value Line observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Simple Exponential Smoothing reference page for Value Line presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Value Line Select on the next trading day is expected to be 29.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.06 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.47 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Value Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Value Line's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Value Line | Value Line Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Value Line Select uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. At the moment, the model places downside around 28.81 and upside around 30.37 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Value Line mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Value Line mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.5023 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0385 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1912 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0061 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.47 |
Other Forecasting Options for Value Line
For investors considering Value, Value Line's price movement is the most direct driver of investment returns. Noise in Value Mutual Fund price charts can make identifying meaningful trends difficult without dedicated analytical tools.Value Line Related Equities
The following equities are related to Value Line within the Large Growth space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Value Line against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Value Line Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Value Line provide investors with a view of how the mutual fund performs across different market environments. By analyzing these indicators, traders can determine the best moments to enter or exit positions in Value Line Select.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 29.59 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 29.59 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.11 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.21 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 35.25 |
Value Line Risk Indicators
A structured analysis of Value Line's risk indicators is one of the most reliable ways to improve the accuracy of price forecasts. Understanding the risk embedded in Value Line's allows investors to decide whether to accept, reduce, or hedge their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5884 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.7708 | |||
| Variance | 0.5941 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Value Line
A coverage review of Value Line Select shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis publishes story content for a diverse readership that includes finance students, independent investors, money managers, and market-focused operating teams. What connects that audience is a focus on building stronger portfolios through better research, risk awareness, and comparative analysis.