VELA Large Mutual Fund Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| VELAX Fund | USD 16.02 -0.11 -0.68% |
This reference page presents Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Vela Large Cap. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Vela Large Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 15.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.11.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past VELA Large observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Vela Large Cap observations. This Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Vela Large Cap is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Vela Large Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 15.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.11 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict VELA Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that VELA Large's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates VELA Large's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. No forecasting approach has been shown to beat all others over time. Investors should treat any model output as a guide, not a guarantee.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of VELA Large mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent VELA Large mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0226 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0866 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0052 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.1112 |
Other Forecasting Options for VELA Large
VELA Large's daily price returns can be decomposed into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in VELA often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration.VELA Large Related Equities
The peer firms below within the Large Blend space can help frame VELA Large's pricing and running costs in context. Looking at VELA Large's pricing multiples next to these peers shows if the stock trades at a premium or discount. Peer review is most useful when paired with absolute pricing and trend checks.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
VELA Large Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors evaluate how VELA Large mutual fund reacts to evolving market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading Vela Large Cap.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 16.02 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 16.02 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.06 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.11 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 33.44 |
VELA Large Risk Indicators
The analysis of VELA Large's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding VELA Large's allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5483 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6252 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9478 | |||
| Variance | 0.8984 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.4387 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.3909 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.66 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for VELA Large
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Vela Large Cap can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.