VANGUARD DIVIDEND Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| VDADX Fund | USD 58.66 0.24 0.41% |
Vanguard Dividend Appreciation's Simple Moving Average reference page covers the model's projected value and error measures from recent price data. The forecast output and associated deviation metrics are shown for informational use. The model is fitted to available historical daily prices for VANGUARD DIVIDEND. This page is updated as new daily closing prices become available for VANGUARD DIVIDEND.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Vanguard Dividend Appreciation on the next trading day is expected to be 58.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.03.The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Vanguard Dividend Appreciation price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of VANGUARD DIVIDEND. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future All Simple Moving Average forecast figures shown for Vanguard Dividend Appreciation are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 26th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Vanguard Dividend Appreciation on the next trading day is expected to be 58.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.18 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.03 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict VANGUARD Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that VANGUARD DIVIDEND's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest VANGUARD DIVIDEND | VANGUARD DIVIDEND Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Vanguard Dividend Appreciation focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The current forecast range spans downside near 57.85 and upside near 59.23.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of VANGUARD DIVIDEND mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent VANGUARD DIVIDEND mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.7301 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0426 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3226 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0053 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 19.035 |
Other Forecasting Options for VANGUARD DIVIDEND
Bollinger Bands applied to VANGUARD Mutual Fund price data measure how far VANGUARD has deviated from its recent average relative to its own volatility. This distinction drives the choice of forecasting model applied to VANGUARD DIVIDEND's price data. On-balance volume for VANGUARD Mutual Fund creates a running indicator of buying versus selling pressure in VANGUARD. Price departures from the channel boundary often mean-revert, offering tactical signals for VANGUARD DIVIDEND's.VANGUARD DIVIDEND Related Equities
These stocks are related to VANGUARD DIVIDEND within the Large Blend space and can be used for peer review, pricing, or spreading risk. Checking cash flow across this peer set helps gauge VANGUARD DIVIDEND's relative financial strength.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
VANGUARD DIVIDEND Market Strength Events
For investors tracking Vanguard Dividend Appreciation, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of mutual fund behavior. These indicators add context to timing decisions around Vanguard Dividend Appreciation positions. These indicators capture shifts in momentum that may precede significant price moves in VANGUARD DIVIDEND. These metrics provide actionable context for both entry and risk management decisions around Vanguard Dividend Appreciation.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 58.66 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 58.66 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.12 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.24 |
VANGUARD DIVIDEND Risk Indicators
Analyzing VANGUARD DIVIDEND's basic risk indicators provides investors with a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for vanguard mutual fund. By identifying the level of risk embedded in VANGUARD DIVIDEND's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing. Analyzing VANGUARD DIVIDEND's risk indicators gives investors important context for price forecasting. Understanding the risk in VANGUARD DIVIDEND's investment allows investors to make informed choices about mitigating exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5072 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.6712 | |||
| Variance | 0.4505 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for VANGUARD DIVIDEND
Story coverage around Vanguard Dividend Appreciation often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.