Victory Capital Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| VCTR Stock | USD 68.19 0.27 0.40% |
The Simple Moving Average forecast reference data for Victory Capital Holdings is based on the equity's recent trading history. Forecast values and accuracy indicators are summarized on this page for reference. This reference information is provided for analytical context.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Victory Capital Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 68.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 70.83.The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Victory Capital Holdings price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Victory Capital. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future The Simple Moving Average projections for Victory Capital Holdings are reference data based on historical daily prices and are provided as informational context. Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Victory Capital Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 68.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.20 , mean absolute percentage error of 2.67 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 70.83 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Victory Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Victory Capital's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Victory Capital | Victory Capital Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Victory Capital Holdings focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The current forecast range spans downside near 66.18 and upside near 70.20.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Victory Capital stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Victory Capital stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.4177 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1086 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.2005 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0172 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 70.83 |
Other Forecasting Options for Victory Capital
Volatility clustering is a well-documented feature of Victory Stock price data where periods of large moves tend to follow other large moves. When Victory Capital's RSI reaches extreme levels, it often precedes a short-term price correction or consolidation. Seasonal patterns in Victory Capital's returns can persist when driven by structural factors like earnings calendars or index rebalancing.Victory Capital Related Equities
These stocks are related to Victory Capital within the Financials space and can be used for peer review, pricing, or spreading risk. Key comparison metrics include price-to-earnings, profit margin, and revenue growth across Victory Capital's peer group. A stock that beats its peers on many metrics often deserves a closer look from value-focused investors. This peer set gives the context needed for a well-rounded view of Victory Capital.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Victory Capital Market Strength Events
Analyzing market strength indicators for Victory Capital enables investors to understand relative stock momentum. Investors use these tools to determine the best times to initiate or close positions in Victory Capital Holdings. Market strength indicators support more precise timing of Victory Capital Holdings positions across market cycles.
Victory Capital Risk Indicators
Identifying and analyzing Victory Capital's key risk indicators is a foundational step in projecting how its price may evolve. This process involves measuring the level of investment risk in Victory Capital's and determining how best to manage it. Studying Victory Capital's risk indicators helps investors understand the risk level of victory stock.
| Mean Deviation | 1.53 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.0 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.01 | |||
| Variance | 4.03 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.94 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.98 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.57 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Victory Capital
Story coverage around Victory Capital Holdings often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Victory Capital Short Properties
A short-interest review of Victory Capital Holdings provides context for understanding whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 66.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 163.7 M |
Additional Tools for Victory Stock Analysis
| Content Syndication Quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal | |
| Bonds Directory Find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies | |
| Fundamental Analysis View fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements | |
| Performance Analysis Check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation | |
| Piotroski F Score Get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals | |
| Watchlist Optimization Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm | |
| Portfolio Holdings Check your current holdings and cash position to determine if your portfolio needs rebalancing | |
| Latest Portfolios Quick portfolio dashboard that showcases your latest portfolios | |
| Instant Ratings Determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance |