VANGUARD CONSUMER Mutual Fund Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| VCSAX Fund | USD 114.20 0.09 0.08% |
Momentum
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
This section summarizes Vanguard Sumer Staples headline activity and related price response context.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Vanguard Sumer Staples on the next trading day is expected to be 110.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 63.80.VANGUARD CONSUMER after-hype prediction price | $ 114.2 |
Hype metrics are shown as one component among forecasting, technical, analyst, and earnings context.
VANGUARD |
VANGUARD CONSUMER Additional Predictive Modules
Predictive models for VANGUARD CONSUMER combine technical indicators with statistical methods to estimate probable price trajectories. Forward estimates should be treated as probability-weighted scenarios rather than point predictions.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 18th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Vanguard Sumer Staples on the next trading day is expected to be 110.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.03 , mean absolute percentage error of 1.63 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 63.80 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict VANGUARD Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that VANGUARD CONSUMER's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest VANGUARD CONSUMER | VANGUARD CONSUMER Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Vanguard Sumer Staples focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The current forecast range spans downside near 109.43 and upside near 111.15.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of VANGUARD CONSUMER mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent VANGUARD CONSUMER mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.437 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.029 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0092 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 63.7981 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of VANGUARD CONSUMER's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of VANGUARD CONSUMER at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting VANGUARD CONSUMER's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on VANGUARD CONSUMER's historical news coverage.
Current Value
The after-hype framework applied to Vanguard Sumer Staples assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as VANGUARD CONSUMER is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading VANGUARD CONSUMER backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with VANGUARD CONSUMER, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.12 | 0.86 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 14 Events | 4 Events | In 14 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
114.20 | 114.20 | 0.00 |
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Hype Timeline
Vanguard Sumer Staples is at this time traded for 114.20. The fund has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.05. VANGUARD is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.12%. %. The volatility of related hype on VANGUARD CONSUMER is about 222.8%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 114.15. Assuming a 90-day horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 14 days. Historical Fundamental Analysis of VANGUARD CONSUMER can be used to cross-verify projections for VANGUARD CONSUMER. The historical series provides projection context.Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to VANGUARD CONSUMER's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict VANGUARD CONSUMER's future price movements. Getting to know how VANGUARD CONSUMER's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| JGLO | JPMorgan Global Select | 0.29 | 2 per month | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.81 | -1.31 | 3.57 | |
| QQQI | NEOS Nasdaq 100 | -0.24 | 7 per month | 0.00 | -0.03 | 1.24 | -1.53 | 3.82 | |
| FATIX | Fidelity Advisor Technology | 0.08 | 8 per month | 1.05 | 0.12 | 2.07 | -2.06 | 6.79 | |
| EQPGX | Fidelity Advisor Equity | -0.03 | 1 per month | 0.00 | -0.03 | 1.49 | -1.87 | 4.49 | |
| FCNYX | Fidelity Advisor Cnsv | 0.29 | 14 per month | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 | |
| FDCAX | Fidelity Capital Appreciation | -0.80 | 1 per month | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1.17 | -1.73 | 4.12 | |
| BOND | PIMCO Active Bond | 0.15 | 11 per month | 0.12 | 0.17 | 0.35 | -0.34 | 0.87 | |
| JTEK | JPMorgan Tech Leaders | -3.27 | 6 per month | 0.00 | -0.09 | 2.13 | -2.76 | 7.00 | |
| PJFM | PGIM ETF Trust | 0.02 | 15 per month | 0.00 | 0.003 | 1.77 | -2.22 | 6.28 | |
| KNGZ | First Trust Exchange Traded | -0.35 | 2 per month | 0.82 | 0.04 | 1.58 | -1.50 | 3.97 |
Other Forecasting Options for VANGUARD CONSUMER
For every potential investor in VANGUARD, whether a beginner or expert, VANGUARD CONSUMER's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better.VANGUARD CONSUMER Related Equities
The following equities are related to VANGUARD CONSUMER within the Consumer Defensive space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing VANGUARD CONSUMER against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
VANGUARD CONSUMER Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how VANGUARD CONSUMER mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading VANGUARD CONSUMER shares will generate the highest return on.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 114.2 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 114.2 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.045 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.09 |
VANGUARD CONSUMER Risk Indicators
The analysis of VANGUARD CONSUMER's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in VANGUARD CONSUMER's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6547 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.5729 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.8339 | |||
| Variance | 0.6953 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.6125 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.3282 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.73 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for VANGUARD CONSUMER
Story coverage around Vanguard Sumer Staples often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. A disciplined read of coverage helps investors separate durable relevance from temporary noise.
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