VALIC Company Mutual Fund Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| VCBDX Fund | USD 9.76 -0.01 -0.10% |
Momentum
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
This view frames how Valic Company I responds to recent headlines and peer activity within its market context.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Valic fund I on the next trading day is expected to be 9.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.91.VALIC Company after-hype prediction price | $ 9.76 |
The hype panel supports comparisons with forecasting models, technical signals, analyst consensus, and earnings.
VALIC |
VALIC Company Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine VALIC price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for VALIC using various technical indicators. When you analyze VALIC charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 17th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Valic Company I on the next trading day is expected to be 9.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0004 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.91 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict VALIC Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that VALIC Company's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest VALIC Company | VALIC Company Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Valic Company I focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of VALIC Company mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent VALIC Company mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -2.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0154 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0016 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.91 |
The concept of mean reversion suggests that VALIC Company's price will eventually return toward its long-run average. High prices may deter value investors, while unusually low prices often attract buyers who anticipate a recovery.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
The price distribution graph for VALIC Company visualizes the statistical uncertainty around our prediction model's output. Investors should interpret the full distribution of VALIC Company's outcomes, not just the central tendency, when making decisions.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
The downside and upside margins for VALIC Company after major news events are estimated from historical precedent. VALIC Company's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.55 and 9.97, respectively. This approach captures the empirical distribution of VALIC Company's short-term price reactions without assuming any particular model of future behavior.
Current Value
The after-hype framework applied to Valic Company I assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as VALIC Company is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading VALIC Company backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with VALIC Company, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4 Events | 1 Events | In 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
9.76 | 9.76 | 0.00 |
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Hype Timeline
Valic Company I is at this time traded for 9.76. The fund stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. VALIC is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 2.37%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on VALIC Company is about 128.05%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 9.76. The fund had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming a 90-day horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 4 days. Historical Fundamental Analysis of VALIC Company provides a cross-check on projections for VALIC Company. The analysis adds historical context for the projection set.Related Hype Analysis
The relationship between VALIC Company and its sector peers means that news affecting one company often reverberates across VALIC Company's competitive landscape. Tracking peer hype helps investors anticipate VALIC Company's likely short-term price behavior.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SMAAX | Aig Government Money | -0.78 | 5 per month | 0.07 | 0.34 | 0.19 | -0.29 | 0.87 | |
| SWTXX | The Charles Schwab | 0.00 | 11 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| CGMXX | Columbia Funds Series | 0.00 | 2 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| JHMXX | John Hancock Money | 0.00 | 1 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| TAMXX | Transamerica Funds | -0.04 | 4 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for VALIC Company
Whether a novice or experienced investor, anyone considering VALIC needs to understand the dynamics of VALIC Company's price movement. Price charts for VALIC Mutual Fund contain a significant amount of noise that can distort investment decisions.VALIC Company Related Equities
The following equities are related to VALIC Company within the Intermediate Core-Plus Bond space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing VALIC Company against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
VALIC Company Market Strength Events
Analyzing market strength indicators for VALIC Company enables investors to understand how the mutual fund performs relative to overall market momentum. These indicators are valuable tools for identifying when to enter or exit positions in Valic Company I.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 9.76 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 9.76 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.01 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 40.35 |
VALIC Company Risk Indicators
Identifying and analyzing VALIC Company's key risk indicators is a foundational step in projecting how its price may evolve. This process helps investors quantify the risk associated with VALIC Company's and decide how to manage it.
| Mean Deviation | 0.1512 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.1668 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.2091 | |||
| Variance | 0.0437 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0672 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.0278 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.23 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for VALIC Company
Story coverage around Valic Company I often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
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